Nepal Floods Triggered by Ice-Rock Avalanche, Preliminary Study Finds

A preliminary report by Nepalese scientists has attributed the devastating floods that tore through the Bhotekoshi-Trishuli corridor on August 26 to a massive ice-rock avalanche in the high Himalayas, ruling out conventional rainfall as the trigger. The report, commissioned by the Nepal Environment Society and released on Sunday, also concluded that the disaster was not caused by a glacial lake outburst flood.

The death toll from the flash floods has risen to 903, authorities said on Monday, with bodies continuing to be recovered. According to a preliminary government assessment, economic losses are estimated at around Rs 3 trillion.

The study found that a huge mass of ice, rock and debris fell from around 5,200 metres in the Langtang-Lirung area of Rasuwa and entered the Lhende River. The surge then travelled downstream through the Bhotekoshi and into the Trishuli, generating a powerful debris-laden flood.

The researchers said the ice-rock mass began falling from the northern part of Langtang-Lirung at around 8:37 am on Wednesday. It descended steep terrain from about 5,200 metres before reaching the Lhende River at around 2,930 metres.

Satellite images showed major geographical changes across about 10 square kilometres, while a section of glacier covering approximately 56 square kilometres had broken away. The researchers analysed satellite imagery, hydrological and meteorological data, terrain characteristics, and changes in elevation and slope along the river system, and found no evidence of a glacial lake outburst flood.

The study said the ice-rock mass travelled about 22 kilometres to Rasuwagadhi in just over seven minutes, at an estimated average speed of 3 metres per second, or 167 kilometres per hour. Its speed later dropped to around 73 kilometres per hour between Rasuwagadhi and Betrabati, and to about 22 kilometres per hour further downstream. Even after slowing, the flow continued carrying huge quantities of rock, sediment and soil.

The study also found that the river's level and flow in the Rasuwagadhi and Syafrubesi areas declined several hours before the flood arrived. At Rasuwagadhi, the average water level fell between 5 am and 8 am, while the flow at Syafrubesi began declining around 7 am. There was no evidence of exceptionally heavy rainfall in the upper watershed that day.

The disaster also caused extensive damage to infrastructure. Citing preliminary Nepal Electricity Authority data, the study said 13 hydropower projects and one solar project were affected, taking around 431 MW of generation capacity out of the system.

Experts said further field investigation is needed to establish the precise geological mechanism, the contribution of melting ice, and whether the river was temporarily blocked upstream.