The National Commodity and Derivatives Exchange (NCDEX) has launched a rainfall futures contract for Chennai, expanding its weather derivatives offering beyond Mumbai. The contract, named RAINCHNNAI, went live on Monday, August 31, and has received approval from the Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI), as reported by Business Today and CNBC TV18.
Contract details
The contract covers the months September through December, a period when the Northeast Monsoon accounts for nearly 70% of Chennai's annual rainfall, according to CNBC TV18. It is cash-settled, meaning no physical delivery of rain occurs; instead, payouts are determined by weather observations.
The underlying measure is the cumulative deviation rainfall (CDR) — the difference between actual rainfall and a benchmark. NCDEX uses a long-period average calculated from the past 50 years of rainfall data, as reported by CNBC TV18. The exchange said the methodology was developed in collaboration with IIT Bombay.
Rainfall data is sourced from India Meteorological Department (IMD) stations at Meenambakkam and Nungambakkam, according to both outlets. The contract has a tick size of 1 millimetre and a lot multiplier of ₹50 per mm, as reported by CNBC TV18. The minimum initial margin is 10% and the maximum order size is 50 lots.
The final settlement price will be based on the CDR spot value on the expiry day, and the last trading day will be the business day immediately preceding the final calendar day of the contract month, as per CNBC TV18. Trading hours run from 10 am to 11:55 pm, according to the same report.
How rainfall futures work
Rainfall futures are financial instruments designed to help businesses manage risks arising from unexpected weather. Unlike insurance, payouts do not depend on proving that a specific weather event caused a specific loss. Instead, the contract value changes based on how much actual rainfall deviates from the benchmark. A participant whose business is financially exposed to such deviations can take a futures position to offset some of the risk.
Businesses whose revenues or costs are sensitive to rainfall — such as farmers, farmer producer organisations, and agricultural enterprises — could potentially use these contracts to hedge their exposure, as explained by Business Today.
Existing Mumbai contract
NCDEX already offers a similar rainfall futures contract for Mumbai, called RAINMUMBAI. That contract is based on Monsoon Cumulative Deviation Rainfall (CDR), measuring deviation from a 30-year historical average, according to Business Today. It uses IMD rainfall observations at Mumbai's Santacruz and Colaba stations.
The contracts do not predict future weather and are intended primarily for risk management rather than forecasting, as noted by Business Today.
Both outlets reported that retail investors can trade the futures.