Myanmar confirms nearly 3,09,000 Rohingya in Bangladesh, says security issues delaying repatriation

Myanmar Confirms Nearly 309,000 Rohingya in Bangladesh, Says Security Issues Delaying Repatriation

Myanmar's military-backed government has verified that nearly 309,000 displaced people living in camps in Bangladesh are former residents of Rakhine State, but repatriation will proceed only after security in the region improves, according to the Foreign Ministry.

The verification covered 308,797 people out of 828,824 names submitted by Bangladesh, as of July 31, 2026. Myanmar also said it had identified 4,241 people on the list it alleged were involved in terrorist activities, while a further 113,507 could not be verified.

Myanmar has long maintained that repatriation is strictly a bilateral matter with Bangladesh and that it will begin only when security conditions in Rakhine State become more stable. The country's military is currently fighting the Arakan Army, an ethnic armed group based in Rakhine that has sought greater autonomy for the region.

The latest confirmation comes as the Rohingya influx into Bangladesh completes nine years and enters its tenth, with host communities and refugees facing a deepening crisis.

Background: The 2017 Exodus and Its Aftermath

In August 2017, Myanmar's military launched sweeping operations in northern Rakhine State after alleged attacks on security posts by the Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army (ARSA) militant group. More than 750,000 Rohingya fled to neighboring Bangladesh, joining hundreds of thousands displaced by earlier crackdowns.

The United Nations reports that Bangladesh now hosts around 1.2 million Rohingya refugees, mostly in cramped camps around Cox's Bazar. In 2017 alone, nearly one million Rohingya crossed the border, according to calculations cited by ANI.

Myanmar does not recognize the Rohingya as one of its 135 officially recognized ethnic groups and has long referred to them as "Bengalis," implying they are migrants from Bangladesh despite generations living in Rakhine. UN investigators found evidence of genocidal intent by Myanmar's military, and the United States in 2022 argued that members of the military had committed genocide and crimes against humanity against the Rohingya. A genocide case brought by the Gambia remains before the International Court of Justice.

The 2021 coup in Myanmar triggered a nationwide civil war that has engulfed Rakhine State. The military no longer controls most of the state, and the Arakan Army now holds much of the territory from which many Rohingya fled.

Why Repatriation Remains Distant

Despite Myanmar's confirmation of the refugee numbers, analysts told DW that large-scale, safe repatriation is now arguably further out of reach than at any point since 2017. Ronan Lee, a researcher at Loughborough University, said "safe repatriation is simply not possible" and that return would carry a high risk of violence. Moe Thuzar, head of the Myanmar Studies Program at Singapore's ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute, agreed that repatriation is much less realistic today.

Several factors explain why. Myanmar is engulfed in civil war, the military no longer controls most of Rakhine, and the Rohingya remain denied citizenship. UN reporting has documented serious abuses against Rohingya by both the Myanmar military and the Arakan Army. Professor Antje Missbach of Bielefeld University noted that Myanmar's government has not offered Rohingya citizenship, and many villages in Rakhine have been destroyed.

Ronan Lee also agreed with the assessment that the return would not be safe.

"The conditions that refugees would return to are far from safe," he said. "The conflict is ongoing and there is a high risk of violence."

The Myanmar government has previously attempted returns: previous repatriation efforts in 2018 and 2019 resulted in no returnees despite bilateral preparations, as reported by The Hindu. In a separate deal, Myanmar agreed to take back 5,000 Rohingya asylum seekers from Malaysia, but Malaysia said that repatriation would not proceed if they would be at risk.

Bangladesh's Position and Funding Pressures

Bangladesh, which has sheltered the refugees for nearly a decade, continues to press for a durable solution while facing declining international aid. Bangladesh's Foreign Secretary, Asad Alam Siam, told ANI that the government is working to keep the issue alive on international and regional forums.

"We are trying to keep the diplomatic pressure on so that at some point they will be able to return," he said.

On funding, Siam acknowledged: "The funding is decreasing, we all know that, but we are trying to gather more support for increased funding. We are talking to our bilateral partners, our international partners, to increase the funding for the Rohingyas in the camps."

Experts in both countries note that the deteriorating conditions in the camps are shaping refugee decisions. Food insecurity is now universal across the camps, according to the World Food Programme, and UNICEF has reported a 27% rise in admissions for severe acute malnutrition. Professor Rafiqul Islam of the University of Dhaka told DW that worsening conditions are altering refugee behavior, with increasing sea voyages and criminal activity. Mizanur Rahman, an anthropologist at Jagannath University, said Bangladesh has "legitimate concerns" and there needs to be genuine international burden-sharing.

The United Nations and Bangladesh announced a $710 million appeal for 2016 for urgent needs, but it is only around 60% funded. The European Union has allocated €23.4 million in humanitarian funding for Bangladesh this year, plus a €14 million development grant through UNHCR in June.

The Rohingya refugee crisis shows no signs of resolution, as the ninth anniversary of the 2017 exodus passes and Bangladesh hosts the world's largest refugee settlement in Cox's Bazar.