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In Mozambique, two public pushes for peace talks this month, coupled with changes within the ruling party and the insurgent movement, may be slowly shifting the government's stance toward negotiations with Cabo Delgado insurgents. Analysts point to a growing recognition that the war will continue indefinitely, prompting fresh thinking about dialogue as a path to resolution.
Coverage Comparison
Reporting from AllAfrica highlights several converging factors that could influence the government's approach. The Institute for Security Studies (ISS) hosted a briefing by Mozambican journalist Borges Nhamirre, who stressed that dialogue is essential to "identify grievances, rebuild trust," and create conditions for formal negotiations. Nhamirre warned, however, that currently "no dialogue is happening" and that the government does not support informal contacts.
Separately, a publication this month by three Mozambican security experts — Salvador Forquilha, João Pereira, and Emílio Zeca of the newly formed NGO Tibverane Foundation—argues that it is possible to engage in dialogue and negotiations with the insurgents. The foundation was established with Swiss funding and support from the Mozambican government. Both the ISS briefing and the experts' paper stress the need to address the roots of the insurgency, including lack of jobs, political and economic exclusion, particularly affecting Muslim communities, abuse by security forces, and a sense of being controlled from Maputo rather than locally.
The reporting also highlights changes in leadership as a potential factor. The previous president, Filipe Nyusi, hailed from Cabo Delgado and was backed by the powerful Frelimo Makonde elite there, which favored a military approach. Current President Daniel Chapo, who grew up in central Mozambique, is seen as having a different background and more space to maneuver. These shifts, alongside changes within the insurgent groups, are seen as contributing to a possible openness to talks.
Key Claims
The push for dialogue includes two public calls for peace talks this month, with analysts attributing the potential shift to changes in Frelimo and the insurgents, as well as a more public recognition that the war will continue indefinitely.
Nhamirre's briefing, hosted by the ISS, emphasized that dialogue is essential to "identify grievances and conflict drivers, rebuild trust," and create conditions for formal negotiations. He noted that currently "no dialogue is happening" and the government does not support informal contacts.
The Tibverane Foundation's publication by Salvador Forquilha, João Pereira, and Emílio Zeca asserts that "it is possible to engage in dialogue and negotiations" with the insurgents, stressing the importance of starting with the roots of the insurgency. These roots include lack of jobs, political and economic exclusion, abuse by security forces, and control from Maputo instead of locally.
Changes in leadership may also play a role. The previous president, Filipe Nyusi, was from Cabo Delgado and was put into the job by the powerful Frelimo Makonde elite, and was said to have resisted negotiations. The current president, Daniel Chapo, grew up in Beira, Sofala, and has a different background, potentially allowing more room for dialogue.
Additionally, there is an accommodation between insurgents and local people across much of Cabo Delgado, and internally displaced people are returning to their villages. The international community has realized that the civil war will continue indefinitely, prompting TotalEnergies to announce a new security ring surrounding the Afungi fortress. Japanese ambassador Keiji Hamada announced that Japan would stop giving aid for reconstruction due to the instability in the region. A claim that the UK could provide help from Jonathan Powell, who has experience in negotiating peace settlements, was also mentioned in the reporting.
Perspectives
Analysts and experts advocate for dialogue and negotiations, emphasizing the need to address underlying grievances. The Mozambican government has not publicly commented on these developments, but the reporting indicates a reluctance to engage in informal contacts, although internal changes may shift this stance. International actors are adjusting their involvement, with Japan halting reconstruction aid and TotalEnergies reinforcing security around its facility, reflecting a recognition of prolonged instability.