Second straw poll puts Rodrigues-Birkett ahead
The UN Security Council held its second informal straw poll on Friday in the race to select the next UN secretary-general, with Guyana's ambassador Carolyn Rodrigues-Birkett emerging as the frontrunner. According to results circulated after the poll, she received eight 'encourage' votes, three 'discourage' votes and four no-opinion votes. Costa Rica's Rebeca Grynspan came second with seven 'encourage' and four 'discourage' votes, while Rafael Grossi of Argentina also collected seven 'encourage' votes but drew six 'discourage' votes.
Grynspan had led the field after the first poll in July, when she received ten 'encourage' votes. The second round showed a reshuffling among the eight candidates, with Senegal's Macky Sall receiving six 'encourage' votes, Uganda's Olara Otunnu five, Ecuador's Maria Fernanda Espinosa four, and Chile's Michelle Bachelet two. Ecuadorian diplomat Ivonne A-Baki, who entered the race after the first poll, received no 'encourage' votes.
Denmark's Ambassador Christina Markus Lassen, whose country holds the council's rotating presidency, confirmed the vote had concluded. She said candidates would be informed of the results through their respective permanent representatives and that the council was considering the timing of the next poll.
Otunnu sees largest surge
Ugandan diplomat Olara Otunnu recorded the largest rise in support in the second poll, increasing from two 'encourage' votes in July to five on August 21, while his 'discourage' count fell from eight to five. His improved standing followed an interactive dialogue with General Assembly member states on August 20, which appeared to sway previously undecided delegates. Otunnu expressed gratitude to the Security Council and said he looked forward to continued engagement with its members and all member states.
No candidate reached the nine affirmative votes needed under Article 27 of the UN Charter in the second poll. Daniel Forti of the International Crisis Group had predicted that the veto-wielding nations might wait before expressing preferences and that it was unlikely any candidate would emerge with a decisive lead.
Russian diplomats signal possible new candidates
Russia's ambassador to the UN, Vasily Nebenzya, said he could not rule out additional candidates if the current field deadlocks. "If there is a deadlock on any of the candidates we are seeing today, if nobody flies, then I think that we may see other candidates as well," he told reporters. Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Alimov echoed that the list is "not yet closed," noting that Uganda's candidate joined at the last moment and that more could emerge depending on the dynamics of the indicative vote.
Nebenzya also said Russia would like the next secretary-general to be more involved in resolving conflicts, drawing a comparison to Kofi Annan's willingness to engage in crises without assurance of success.
US criticizes selection process
The United States has faulted polling and surveys in the selection process, warning against usurping the Security Council's power. Ambassador Jennifer Locetta accused President of the General Assembly Annalena Baerbock of "irresponsible actions" that could undermine the process. According to the US, the PGA sent two letters to the council invoking transparency, fairness and inclusion, and convened a town hall on July 23 that included an audience survey, which the US called "unfair, untransparent, and unprecedented." The US argued that Resolution 79/327 does not permit polls or surveys, and objected to a second letter asking the council not to consider candidates who did not participate in a General Assembly dialogue.
The field of candidates
The selection comes as current Secretary-General Antonio Guterres, in post since 2017, completes his second term on December 31, 2026. The candidates include a mix of former heads of state, UN officials and diplomats. Rebeca Grynspan, a former vice president of Costa Rica, leads UNCTAD and brokered the Black Sea Grain Initiative in 2022. Michelle Bachelet, a former Chilean president and UN rights chief, has been criticized by the US, particularly on abortion rights, and Chile withdrew support for her candidacy after President Jose Antonio Kast took office. Rafael Grossi has led the IAEA since 2019 and did not step down to campaign. Carolyn Rodrigues-Birkett is Guyana's former foreign minister and current ambassador to the UN. Ivonne A-Baki, nominated by Tonga, served as Ecuador's ambassador to Washington and Qatar. Olara Otunnu is a former UN under-secretary-general and lost the 2011 Uganda presidential race. Macky Sall, current AU chair and former Senegal president, was proposed by Burundi; Senegal authorities have accused him of repressing protests from 2021 to 2024. Maria Fernanda Espinosa, a former Ecuadorian foreign minister and UNGA president, is backed by Antigua and Barbuda rather than Ecuador.
The straw poll process, used since the 1980s, gauges support among the council's 15 members. A candidate needs at least nine votes and must avoid a veto from the five permanent members. Later rounds use different coloured ballots for permanent members to show which lose support without naming countries. The tradition of regional rotation suggests the role should go to Latin America, though Sall and Otunnu are from Africa.
Perspectives
United States: The US criticized the PGA's polling and surveys, arguing they undermine the Security Council's role and violate Resolution 79/327, and protested a request that candidates skipping GA dialogue be excluded.
Russia: Russian diplomats see the candidate list as open and expect new entrants if deadlock occurs, and expressed hope that the next secretary-general will be more proactive in conflict resolution.
Candidates: Olara Otunnu welcomed his improved poll result and pledged continued engagement, while other candidates have not commented publicly on the second poll in the covered reports.