A year to the election, a mountain of troubles
Spain is one year out from the latest possible date for a general election — Aug. 22, 2027 — and for Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez, the road there looks bruising. He insists he will seek reelection, brushing aside predictions that he is doomed by pointing to his established knack for defying political gravity. But the odds are especially stacked against him, according to an analysis by Politico Europe.
Sánchez has ruled Spain since June 2018, implementing a raft of progressive policies — investing heavily in renewables, hiking the minimum wage, extending abortion rights, banning "gay conversion practices," capping rent increases, and raising taxes on the super-wealthy while reducing the tax burden on lower earners. The Guardian notes that he has emerged as a leading, and often lone, left-wing European voice on the global stage, striking a defiant tone on everything from the Trump administration's war in Iran ("the smokescreen of war to hide their failure") to Israel's actions in Gaza ("exterminating a defenceless people").
But at home, the picture is more complex. Sánchez's inner circle is in the midst of a corruption scandal, and his minority coalition government has not passed a new budget since 2023. Polling has his traditionally centre-left Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE) faltering.
Scandals and legal troubles
The summer of 2025 brought a string of legal setbacks. Spanish police arrested high-ranking Socialist Party official Santos Cerdán on suspicion of awarding public works contracts in exchange for kickbacks. Former Prime Minister José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero, a Sánchez ally, was indicted on money-laundering charges. A major raid was conducted on the headquarters of Spain's Socialist Party as part of a separate criminal investigation.
The legal pressure has extended to Sánchez's family. His wife, Begoña Gómez, could stand trial on charges of influence-peddling and embezzlement. His brother was convicted on administrative misconduct charges in connection with the rigged allocation of a public job. Beyond that, there are judicial probes into alleged bid-rigging and kickbacks involving key allies, and an investigation into suspected illegal financing of the Socialist Party. Gabriel Rufián of the Republican Left of Catalonia warned that illegal financing is a "red line" — a warning that underscores how the scandals are straining Sánchez's fragile coalition.
Nearly a third of Sánchez's ministers have been summoned to testify at extraordinary hearings in the Spanish parliament, adding to the sense of siege.
The Ceuta migration surge
Just days before Sánchez was due to head off for a beach break on the island of Lanzarote, his summer was upended by a surge of 72,000 migrants into Ceuta, a Spanish exclave in northern Africa. Although the prime minister eventually resumed his vacation, the crisis has dominated the news. Thousands of unauthorized migrants remain in the city, with local authorities complaining that Madrid is not doing enough to address overwhelmed hospitals and other public services.
Twenty-two EU leaders signed a letter suggesting that Sánchez's liberal migration policies could have helped attract the influx into Ceuta. The Guardian offers a different lens: in response to the crisis, Sánchez did not pander to the right but moved to regularize undocumented migrants in Spain. Poll data cited by The Guardian shows that in January only 3.9% of Spaniards felt immigration was the biggest issue facing Spain, and in June it was 4.8%.
A government that cannot pass a budget
Spain's minority government has been unable to pass a single budget bill during this legislative term and has been operating on the spending plan approved in December 2022. The draft budget for 2027 is almost certain to be rejected by lawmakers. Together for Catalonia voted down the deficit framework for the draft budget, with spokesperson Josep Rius characterizing the legislation as "yet another Sánchez frivolity."
Pablo Simón, a political scientist at Madrid's Carlos III University, said there is growing speculation that Sánchez may want to call voters to the polls as early as March, and that the budget's failure would provide an excuse to do so. The PSOE lost a string of recent local elections, and polling suggests the People's Party and Vox are on course to control a majority of seats in the Spanish parliament in 2027. Sumar has effectively collapsed amid internal infighting, and its leader, Yolanda Díaz, has ruled out standing as its candidate at the next election.
International standing, domestic isolation
Sánchez's international engagement — such as condemnation of Israel's military operations in Gaza and feuds with Donald Trump — previously bolstered his standing in Spain. He recognized a Palestinian state in 2024 and hosted a left-wing summit in Barcelona in April. One of his first acts as PM was allowing the Aquarius, carrying 629 people rescued off the coast of Libya, to dock in Valencia after it was turned away from Italy and Malta.
But the international stage is not what it used to be. In November, Madrid will host a summit of Ibero-American heads of government, with roughly half the leaders attending from the right, including Argentina's president Javier Milei. The Guardian, drawing on Madrid-based journalist Eoghan Gilmartin, suggests that Sánchez's example holds lessons for UK Prime Minister Andy Burnham — particularly in how a left-wing leader can survive by combining progressive policies with pragmatism on issues like immigration. Politico Europe, however, frames Sánchez as increasingly seen as a lame duck, with his international engagement no longer insulating him from the pressures at home.