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Global oil reserves are rapidly declining as the Middle East conflict and shipping restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz disrupt supply, according to reports from TASS, the Russian state news agency, citing data from major financial institutions. The reports, which draw on Bloomberg's coverage, indicate that stockpiles are being depleted at an unprecedented rate, raising concerns about energy market stability.

Coverage comparison

Two TASS reports, published in May, present a consistent picture of accelerating depletion. The first, dated May 10, highlights a sharp drawdown in global oil stockpiles as of late April. The second, dated May 21, describes a record pace of decline in May, with analysts warning of an unprecedented supply crisis. Both reports attribute the situation to the ongoing conflict and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz to shipping linked to the United States, Israel, and their allies.

While the reports share a similar tone, they emphasize different aspects. The earlier report focuses on the risk of price spikes and shortages, while the later one provides more detailed data on the rate of decline and the geographic spread of import reductions.

Key claims

  • Stockpile drawdown estimates: Morgan Stanley estimates that global oil stockpiles declined by about 4.8 million barrels per day between March 1 and April 25, a pace that the report says far exceeds the previous peak for a quarterly drawdown in data compiled by the International Energy Agency. In May, according to Goldman Sachs, global stockpiles are shrinking by 8.7 million barrels per day, nearly twice the average pace since the start of the conflict. Since March, global oil stockpiles have been shrinking by an average of 4.6 million barrels per day.
  • Visible oil stocks near multi-year lows: Goldman Sachs reports that global visible oil stocks are already close to their lowest since 2018, according to the TASS report. The report notes that rapidly dwindling reserves demonstrate a growing risk of sharper price spikes and shortages that governments may not be able to effectively mitigate.
  • Strait of Hormuz exports at 5% of normal: Analysts at Goldman Sachs noted that oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz remain at a very low level—5% of normal volumes. The report highlights that about two-thirds of the global stockpile decline in May was caused by a reduction in oil and petroleum products transported aboard tanker vessels, with export declines outpacing import reductions.
  • Coordination of strategic reserves: Countries around the world have decided to coordinate the use of oil from strategic reserves in an attempt to contain price growth, according to Goldman Sachs.
  • Import reductions spreading to Europe: The decline in imports is spreading from Asia to Europe, with aviation fuel deliveries to Europe 60% below average 2025 levels, the report states.
  • US oil reserves fall: Last week, US authorities reported that the country's oil reserves fell by a record 17.8 million barrels due to significant exports depleting stockpiles. Analysts noted that the tourist season in the United States begins this weekend, which will increase fuel demand.

Background

The reports also provide context for the conflict. The United States and Israel launched a military operation against Iran on February 28. Tehran decided to close the Strait of Hormuz to ships associated with the US, Israel, and countries that backed the aggression against Iran. On April 7, Washington announced a "double-sided" two-week ceasefire with Iran. On April 11, the parties held several rounds of talks in Islamabad, but were unable to reach a long-term settlement due to multiple disagreements. On April 21, US President Donald Trump announced that Washington intended to extend the ceasefire, but Iranian State Television said Tehran did not recognize the unilateral extension and would act in line with its interests.