Lead

Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said the global oil market is experiencing a deep crisis, with large volumes of crude not reaching buyers and demand significantly outstripping supply. Speaking in separate remarks reported by the Russian state news agency TASS, Novak estimated that around 10-12 million barrels per day are currently not delivered to the market, totaling roughly 600 million barrels lost since the start of the Middle East conflict.

Coverage Comparison

The comments were carried by TASS in a series of reports from the Caucasus Investment Forum, held from April 28 to 30 in the Stavropol Region. All quotes attributed to Novak appeared in TASS dispatches. No other news agency's reporting was available for this analysis, and TASS is a Russian state-owned outlet, so its framing may reflect official Russian perspectives.

Key Claims

  • The global oil market is in a deep crisis, with a huge volume of oil not entering the market. Novak stated that "a huge amount of oil is not entering the market today" and that "demand significantly exceeds supply," according to TASS.
  • Around 10-12 million barrels per day are not delivered, amounting to about 600 million barrels in total since the crisis began. Novak gave these figures in an interview on the Vesti program, per TASS.
  • The crisis has forced countries to use their reserves and deplete accumulated stocks. Novak noted that this is precisely what those reserves were for, and that after the crisis ends, countries will need to replenish them, leading to sustained high demand.
  • The US and Israel launched a military operation against Iran on February 28, according to TASS. Novak attributed the oil market imbalance to this conflict and to logistical difficulties.
  • Resolving the Middle East conflict is essential for global supply chain stability, Novak said, as it affects not only oil but all economic sectors.
  • An OPEC+ meeting is scheduled for Sunday as planned, where participants will assess the group's potential to supply the market with oil. Novak declined to comment on possible quota changes.
  • The UAE has decided to exit OPEC and OPEC+ effective May 1, 2026, according to the Emirates state news agency WAM, as cited by TASS. Novak said he could not confirm whether the UAE will participate in the upcoming meeting.
  • Russia does not view the energy crisis as an additional source for solving budgetary or macroeconomic problems, Novak told Vedomosti in an interview reported by TASS. He acknowledged that higher energy export prices strengthen the ruble, offsetting some budget benefits.
  • The closure of the Strait of Hormuz cut off market access for a third of global energy exports, including 35% of oil and 20% of gas, as well as over 40% of sulfur, helium, and industrial exports from the Middle East, Novak said.
  • Oil prices may continue to rise if the conflict drags on, Novak warned. He also said that high prices are not profitable for producers in the long term because consumers will seek alternative energy sources.

Perspectives

Novak's statements reflect the Russian government's position that the Middle East conflict is the primary driver of oil market instability. He highlighted the need for conflict resolution to stabilize not just oil but all supply chains.

TASS's reporting focuses on Novak's official remarks, with no independent verification of the figures provided. The claim that the US and Israel launched a war on February 28 is presented as fact in TASS dispatches.

The UAE's reported exit from OPEC+ is based on a WAM announcement, but Novak said he could not confirm UAE participation in the upcoming OPEC+ meeting. No other sources have corroborated this information in the available materials.

Novak's comments about the Strait of Hormuz closure and its global impact are his own assessments, not attributed to any independent analysis.

Potential future oil price movements remain uncertain, with Novak himself noting that high prices could drive consumers to alternatives, which would eventually reduce demand.