Storm Track and Intensity

Tropical Storm Marie is expected to become a hurricane on Wednesday, according to the National Hurricane Center. As of 7 a.m. Wednesday, the storm had maximum sustained winds near 70 mph. Marie was about 1,300 miles southeast of San Diego on Tuesday night. The National Hurricane Center reported that by Sunday, Marie is expected to be about 775 miles southwest of San Diego.

Forecasters from the National Hurricane Center indicated that Marie is most likely to take a track to the northwest, moving away from land. However, Robbie Berg, a warning coordination meteorologist at the center, noted there remains a "slim chance" the storm could move farther north, potentially putting it on a path toward Southern California.

The storm is expected to start weakening sometime during the weekend.

The National Hurricane Center advisory stated that swells generated by Marie will affect portions of the coast of southwest Mexico and the Baja California Peninsula over the next few days and will likely spread northward to southern California. The advisory warned that these swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

Potential Impacts on Southern California

The National Weather Service office in Oxnard reported a 50% to 60% chance of widespread light rain from Saturday into Tuesday, with a 10% to 20% chance of moderate-to-heavy rain that could cause localized flooding and thunderstorms. Forecasters expect showers that do fall to drop less than 1 inch of rain.

UC climate scientist Daniel Swain estimated a 20% to 25% chance of heavy rainfall and thunderstorms that could potentially cause flooding, as well as a similar chance of no rain at all. Swain said there is only a 10% chance of a direct tropical storm landfall in California, but noted there is "a real chance of genuinely heavy rainfall and thunderstorms."

According to the San Diego Union-Tribune, forecasters say air temperatures at the coast will be in the upper 70s to lower 80s over the weekend, drawing beach-goers. Waves generated by Marie would heavily hit beaches in northern San Diego County and southern Orange County the hardest, the report said. Computer models also indicate the county could receive some rain and possibly lightning in the backcountry.

Beach Hazards and Coastal Flooding

The National Weather Service warned of a high chance of large waves and strong rip currents over the holiday weekend, with an increased risk of ocean drownings. The weather service office in Oxnard said coastal flooding is possible, especially in the Alamitos Peninsula area of Long Beach, Malibu, Point Mugu, Avalon on Catalina Island, and possibly parts of Santa Barbara.

Sunday and Monday appear to be the days for the peak swell, according to forecasters.

Kristan Lund, a meteorologist with the weather service office in Oxnard, mentioned a 10% to 15% chance of moderate-to-strong winds from the east.

Fire Weather Concerns

The weather service office in San Diego predicted high confidence of fire weather in the Santa Ana mountains, San Bernardino mountains, the Inland Empire, and the mountains of Riverside and San Diego counties, as well as the deserts.

Forecasters cautioned that the forecast could change significantly if there is even a minor change in Marie's direction.