Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva holds a slim lead over right-wing Senator Flavio Bolsonaro ahead of October's presidential election, according to a new Quaest poll published Friday. The survey found Lula would take 43 percent of the vote in a simulated run-off, against 40 percent for Bolsonaro—effectively a statistical tie given the poll's two-point margin of error.
The result marks a narrowing from an earlier Quaest poll on August 5, which had put Lula ahead by a wider five-point margin, 44 percent to 39 percent. In a first-round scenario, Lula leads more comfortably with 38 percent, followed by Bolsonaro at 31 percent. Three other candidates trail far behind: Renan Santos and Ronaldo Caiado each polled at 4 percent, and Romeu Zema at 2 percent.
The poll, conducted by Quaest between August 10 and 13, surveyed 2,004 people and was commissioned by the Brazilian media group Globo.
Candidates and Campaign Dynamics
Flavio Bolsonaro, the eldest son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, has emerged as the standard-bearer for Brazil's right after his father was barred from running. The elder Bolsonaro was ruled ineligible for office after Brazil's top electoral court found he had abused his power while in office. He was later convicted separately over a plot to overturn his 2022 election loss to Lula.
Flavio's campaign has been marred by a feud with his stepmother and links to a banker at the centre of a massive financial fraud probe, according to Buenos Aires Times. He trailed Lula by just three points in a poll released last week, despite these controversies.
Under Brazilian electoral rules, if no candidate secures more than half the valid votes in the first round, the top two finishers advance to a run-off.
Lula launched his re-election bid on August 2 at the Workers' Party convention in Sao Paulo, where he called for increased defence spending and pledged to shield Brazil's reserves of rare earths and other critical minerals from foreign control. He warned that China, the US and France would not get access to Brazil's mineral wealth without respecting the country's sovereignty.
Economic and Political Context
Lula's frontrunner status owes largely to lifelines from two political nemeses: Donald Trump and Flavio's father, Jair Bolsonaro, according to Buenos Aires Times. The US leader slapped 50 percent tariffs on Brazilian goods last year, sparking a trade spat that boosted Lula's approval. After his conviction, Jair Bolsonaro blessed his eldest son's bid for the presidency over the objections of allies and investors alike.
Lula's approval ratings plunged to the lowest levels of his career last year, but have since recovered. Betting markets give Lula better than 60 percent odds of re-election, though investors have begun selling off Brazilian assets amid worries about his willingness to tackle ballooning deficits and debt.
Finance Minister Dario Durigan said the market's worries about Brazil's debt are justified and cast fiscal policy as the government's main tool to bring down interest rates. Brazil's fiscal deficits are nearing 10 percent of gross domestic product and debt levels are above 80 percent.
The campaign has been shaped by American tariffs, a visa dispute over election monitoring, and the Lula government's warming ties with China. Lula has accused the US of trying to interfere in Brazil's election, and in June warned Trump: "Don't meddle in the Brazilian elections, because the Brazilian elections are a Brazilian problem, just as American elections are their business, not mine."
Lula's administration blocked two US State Department officials from visiting Brazil, and Flavio Bolsonaro met Trump at the White House in May. The US again levelled tariffs on Brazil two months after that meeting, despite Bolsonaro's warnings.
Campaign Strategies and Voter Concerns
Lula has been posting workout videos to social media to combat perceptions that he is too old to lead Brazil. A rap-inspired campaign jingle and his prioritisation of podcast appearances over traditional media interviews are part of a strategy to reach younger voters.
Quaest found that women favour Lula by nine points. However, Lula has not delivered on a "beer and barbecue for all" pledge of cheaper food or convinced voters of his public security approach, and his relief programs appear to be losing potency with voters, according to two people close to the president.
Flavio Bolsonaro's campaign did not respond to a request for comment from Buenos Aires Times. In late July, Brazil's Supreme Court authorized federal authorities to investigate one of Lula's sons for alleged corruption and influence-peddling.
Brazil's economy is slowing despite a wave of stimulus efforts, weighed down by double-digit interest rates, though unemployment is near historic lows and violent crime rates are falling.
Perspectives
Lula Administration: The president frames the election as a battle for sovereignty against foreign interference, emphasises his experience, and points to recovered approval ratings and support among women. His team expresses confidence, with centrist party leader Gilberto Kassab forecasting that Lula will "bury" his inexperienced opponent now that the official campaign period is underway. Some inside the administration are already eyeing positions in a new government.
Flavio Bolsonaro Campaign: The campaign is focused on the right-wing base, highlighting the elder Bolsonaro's blessing and maintaining a close race despite internal controversies. The candidate has not responded to requests for comment and faces questions over his stepmother feud and links to a fraud probe. Supporters point to the narrow poll gap as evidence of viable opposition to Lula.