‘Looming’ risk of nuclear arms race, UN proliferation meeting hears

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UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres opened the 11th Review Conference of the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) in New York on Monday with a stark warning that the world is sliding back toward a nuclear arms race. "Nuclear sabers rattle once more. Mistrust rules the day. Hard-won norms are eroding. Arms control is dying," he told delegates, as reported by TASS.

Guterres noted that for the first time in decades, the number of nuclear warheads is on the rise, that nuclear testing is being discussed again, and that some governments are openly considering acquiring such weapons. "Have we forgotten that a nuclear war cannot be won and must not be fought?" he asked, according to the Russian state news agency.

Coverage Comparison

The conference, which runs until May 22, brings together nearly all 191 states parties to the NPT to review its implementation in three areas: non-proliferation, nuclear disarmament, and the peaceful use of atomic energy. Reporting from multiple outlets highlights both the urgency of Guterres's message and the deep divisions among member states.

According to RFI and the South China Morning Post, Guterres framed the treaty as "eroding" and said that "commitments remain unfulfilled" and that "trust and credibility are wearing thin." He called on delegates to "breathe life into the Treaty once more."

The conference president, Vietnam's UN Ambassador Do Hung Viet, cautioned against expecting the meeting to resolve underlying strategic tensions, according to RFI. But he warned that the outcome would have "implications way beyond these halls," adding that "the prospects of a new nuclear arms race are looming over us."

Key Claims

• Guterres reminded delegates that in 2022 he had warned humanity was "one misunderstanding, one miscalculation away from nuclear annihilation," as reported by RFI and the South China Morning Post.
• Global military spending reached $2.7 trillion last year, a figure Guterres said was 13 times more than all worldwide development aid and comparable to the total GDP of the African continent, per TASS.
• According to RFI, the nine nuclear-armed states — Russia, the United States, France, the United Kingdom, China, India, Pakistan, Israel, and North Korea — possess 12,241 nuclear warheads (as of January 2025, per the source), with the United States and Russia holding nearly 90 percent of them.
• France's Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot told signatories, as quoted by the South China Morning Post, that "never has the risk of nuclear proliferation been so high," calling the threats posed by Iran's and North Korea's programs "intolerable for each and every state party to this treaty."

Perspectives

Guterres also highlighted the impact of emerging technologies on nuclear risks. "The nuclear threat is compounded by new dangers from rapidly evolving technologies such as artificial intelligence and quantum computing," he said, according to TASS. He argued that the treaty must "grapple with the nexus between nuclear weapons and new technologies" and ensure that, until nuclear weapons are eliminated, "humanity never cedes control over their use."

Striking a more optimistic note, Guterres described the NPT not as "a relic of a former age" but as "a living instrument" capable of remaining "an active and strong foundation for a world free of nuclear weapons," provided countries firmly adhere to its provisions, as reported by TASS.

The conference takes place against a backdrop of heightened geopolitical tensions, including conflicts and disagreements between nuclear and non-nuclear powers. Many experts doubt that delegates will agree on a final document with practical steps, according to TASS's reporting, which noted "deep contradictions" among participants.

Guterres also invoked the long history of disarmament efforts, noting that the global goal of eliminating nuclear weapons dates back to the first resolution of the UN General Assembly in 1946. He warned that a "state of collective amnesia" has taken hold, comparing today's attitudes to earlier eras when children practiced hiding under desks during missile drills and nuclear tests devastated natural areas, per TASS.

As the conference proceeds, delegates will attempt to bridge their differences and produce a consensus document. Whether they succeed remains uncertain, but as Ambassador Do warned, the stakes extend far beyond the conference hall.