Six Months of War: The Stalemate Between Iran, Israel, and the US
The war that began on February 28 with US and Israeli strikes on Iran has reached the six-month mark with no resolution in sight. The initial attacks, which killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and other top officials, were meant to topple Iran's leadership, but the conflict has settled into a grinding stalemate, according to multiple reports.
The Toll
Official figures compiled from national health ministries and official bodies indicate at least 7,900 people have been killed. This includes at least 4,350 in Lebanon, 3,527 in Iran, and 28 in Gulf states. On the other side, 60 Israelis and 18 US service members have died in Iranian attacks, with 757 US personnel wounded.
According to the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data project (ACLED), the US and Israel have carried out at least 3,580 attacks on Iran since February 28, while Iran has conducted at least 2,053 attacks across the Gulf and wider Middle East.
The Economic War
The conflict has severely disrupted global energy markets. Iran effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz on the first day of the war, reducing daily ship transits from over 100 to fewer than 20 per weekend, according to recent data. Before the war, at least 100 ships, more than half of them tankers, passed through the strait daily. Now, traffic has collapsed, and oil exports from Iran have fallen from near 8 million barrels a day to below half a million.
Brent crude has risen about 22 percent since the war began, from 48 to 58 a barrel as of August 28, according to one report. The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve has fallen to 290 million barrels, its lowest level since November 1982.
The US has also imposed severe economic sanctions on Iran, including Operation Economic Outcast, launched by the Treasury on August 24. Inflation in Iran is approaching 90 percent, and the rial has cratered. The economic pressure is taking a toll on ordinary Iranians. "The economic situation is extremely terrible," taxi driver Saeed Fariabi told Al Jazeera, while another resident, Narges Ghahremani, said, "Yes, everyone is facing difficulties, but we should not turn our backs on our country."
Leadership Changes and Internal Pressures
The assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in the opening strike led to the rapid appointment of his son, Mojtaba Khamenei, as successor. But according to one report, the new leader has yet to make a verified public appearance, and rumors about his condition persist. The IRGC commander Mohammad Pakpour and armed forces chief of staff Abdolrahim Mousavi were also killed in the opening strike; replacements were named on August 10.
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian has acknowledged the severity of the situation. In August, he said Iran's difficulties have "multiplied several times over," and on August 21, he argued it would be "better to end [the war] today, while we are in a position of strength." Parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf echoed that sentiment, saying, "No matter how much military power we have, if the people are hungry and there is no financial circulation, economic growth, or national production, we will not endure."
Despite these pressures, Iran's leadership has remained defiant, with officials insisting they will not reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Mohsen Rezaee, a senior military commander, claimed Iran has made billions of dollars amid the US blockade. Iran's security head dismissed reports of plots against US officials, and the oil minister said Iranian oil sales have not stopped despite reductions.
Regional and Global Implications
The war has drawn in multiple actors. Hezbollah has fired rockets into northern Israel, prompting near-daily Israeli responses and, at one point, Israeli control over one-fifth of Lebanon. Israeli forces continue to occupy parts of southern Lebanon despite ceasefire agreements announced in April and renewed in June. The IDF has continued strikes in Lebanon and Syria.
The conflict has also strained US relations in the region. Gulf Arab nations have seen worrying gaps in the US security umbrella, and Iranian attacks have caused billions in damages to US intelligence sites and hardware, including a CIA station in Riyadh and radar equipment in eastern Iraq.
In the US, public support for the war is waning. Trump's approval rating has fallen to 33 percent, with 80 percent of Americans believing US involvement in Iran will last an extended period. The US has pivoted from strikes to sanctions, a move experts say shows a lack of clear strategy, according to a Jerusalem Post report.
Perspectives on the Conflict
US officials, including Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, have stated the war has cost 5bn so far, though US media have reported internal estimates of $80bn to $100bn. The stated aim of Operations Roaring Lion and Epic Fury was regime change, but analysts are divided on whether that goal is achievable.
Some experts argue Iran's control of the Strait of Hormuz is losing strategic value, as the global economy adjusts. An expert told the Jerusalem Post that it is possible to manage without much of the oil that used to transit the strait. Others, like former US assistant secretary of state Barbara Leaf, believe Iran has grown more confident. "Iran's confidence has grown over the months that it cannot only survive, but it can prevail, it can reset the regional landscape," she told Al Jazeera.
The conflict has also affected Israel's internal dynamics, including debates over women in combat roles and a manhunt following a stabbing attack. Meanwhile, efforts at diplomacy, including a US-Iran deal signed in June that collapsed weeks later, have failed to produce a lasting peace.
What's Next?
As the war enters its seventh month, no clear end is in sight. US Treasury Secretary Bessent said the US is entering an "endgame" with Iran, and Trump has claimed Iran is "begging" for a deal. But Iran's leadership remains defiant, and the humanitarian and economic costs continue to mount. The conflict has become a test of endurance for all parties involved, with the global economy watching closely.