Live Results: California special election to replace former Rep. Eric Swalwell

A historic win in California's 14th

Aisha Wahab, a California state senator, is projected to win the special election in the state's 14th Congressional District, becoming the first Afghan American elected to Congress, according to projections from NBC News and other outlets. Wahab, a Democrat, defeated fellow Democrat Melissa Hernandez, a Bay Area Rapid Transit Board member, in a race that drew national attention and unprecedented outside spending.

Wahab will serve out the remainder of former Rep. Eric Swalwell's term after he resigned in April following allegations of sexual misconduct, which he denied. The special election was necessary after no candidate secured a majority in the June primary, sending Wahab and Hernandez to a one-on-one runoff.

A close contest despite early expectations

The result was far tighter than initial polls suggested. In the June primary, Wahab led Hernandez by more than 25 percentage points, according to Dawn. But by election night, with 95% of the expected vote counted, Wahab's lead had narrowed to about six points, with Wahab taking 53% to Hernandez's 47%, NBC News reported.

That narrowing came after a deluge of outside spending. Groups associated with the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC) spent an estimated $6.3 million to $6.4 million opposing Wahab and supporting Hernandez, according to campaign finance reports cited by Dawn and The Times of India. NBC News reported that an AIPAC-aligned super PAC alone spent about $2.5 million against Wahab in the final weeks.

A campaign shaped by outside money

The scale of outside involvement made the race a flashpoint in the broader Democratic debate over the influence of pro-Israel groups. Wahab has said Israel's conduct in the Gaza war constitutes genocide, a position echoed by her campaign website's criticism of "AIPAC-linked dark-money PACs," as reported by NBC News. Hernandez did not answer yes when asked if Israel was committing a genocide at an April forum.

The United Democracy Project, an AIPAC-backed super PAC, spent $1.2 million in August to support Hernandez and oppose Wahab, according to Federal Election Commission records reported by PBS. Another group, Bold America, which has received funding from the United Democracy Project, spent roughly $1.7 million. The Washington Post reported nearly $2.5 million in AIPAC-affiliated spending since early August, the Jerusalem Post noted.

Historic profile, national implications

Wahab's victory adds to her trailblazing political career. Born in Queens, New York, to Afghan refugees who fled the Soviet-Afghan war, she was orphaned as a child after her father's murder and mother's death, then entered foster care before being adopted by a California couple. She later earned a political science degree, an MBA, and a doctorate in social work, and in 2022 became the first Afghan American and Muslim woman elected to the California legislature.

Her platform is unapologetically progressive (Medicare for All, higher taxes on billionaires, student-debt cancellation), and she was endorsed by Reps. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Pramila Jayapal, The Times of India reported. Her win was framed by some outlets as a sign of the left's growing influence within the party, coming alongside other progressive primary victories but also notable losses.

Reactions from party leaders

House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries welcomed Wahab on X, saying, "House Democrats look forward to welcoming you to the 119th Congress as we fight for an Affordable America," as reported by The Guardian. Rep. Pramila Jayapal applauded Wahab's "grassroots, people-powered campaign" that "fought millions from Aipac and dark money groups," adding that her Medicare For All PAC invested $225,000 to help Wahab win.

The race also exposed internal Democratic rifts. Rep. Zoe Lofgren, chair of California's Democratic delegation, released a video before the election accusing Wahab of self-interest for opposing the delegation's plan to appoint a caretaker, The Guardian noted.

What's next

The November election will feature a rematch between Wahab and Hernandez for the full two-year term, with the winner taking office in January 2027. The revised district, redrawn after the 2020 census, remains solidly Democratic, but the margin of this special election—and the money still flowing—suggests the stakes remain high for both national parties and the interest groups watching closely.