Lead

A Senate inquiry into the proposed overhaul of Australia's National Disability Insurance Scheme (NDIS) has heard that 240,000 current participants will be exited from the scheme over the next four years, while an additional 110,000 people who would have joined are expected to be diverted away. The revelations have sparked a political clash between federal and state governments over the pace and impact of the reforms.

Coverage Comparison

Coverage from the Australian Broadcasting Corporation (ABC) has been extensive, with multiple reports highlighting different aspects of the story. One report focused on the government's defense of the overhaul, framing the criticism from state and territory disability ministers as "extraordinary" and "posturing." Another emphasized the human impact, quoting opposition ministers and witnesses who criticized the "rush" to reform. A third report took a more informative tone, explaining the government's plan to cut spending and the expected savings.

Key Claims

  • 240,000 people to exit the NDIS: According to Treasury modelling presented to the Senate inquiry, 240,000 existing participants will leave the scheme over four years as part of the government's cost-cutting plan. This figure was confirmed by health, disability and ageing department official Anthea Long, who told the inquiry that the scheme was projected to have 940,000 participants by 2031, but under the changes it would be 600,000.
  • 110,000 additional people diverted: The modelling also showed that 110,000 people who are not yet participants but would have joined the scheme over the next five years will be diverted away. This includes children with developmental delays or autism being moved to the new Thriving Kids program.
  • Savings of $35 billion: Treasury modelling revealed a plan to cut spending by $35 billion over a decade, with the government expecting to save more than $30 billion over the next four years alone.
  • Senate inquiry submissions: The inquiry received more than 4,000 public submissions in just over a fortnight, indicating widespread concern from the disability sector.

Perspectives

Federal Government Perspective: Health Minister Mark Butler defended the reforms, describing criticism from state and territory disability ministers as "extraordinary" given the states had signed on to the plan. He reiterated that people would not be left without support, and pointed to the $25 billion in additional hospital funding provided to the states as part of the package deal. Disability and NDIS Minister Jenny McAllister said the government had "thought carefully" about the reforms and was open to constructive changes.

State and Territory Ministers' Perspective: In their submission to the inquiry, state and territory disability ministers warned that without a "careful, coordinated approach," many people with disability may be left without services by yet-to-be-built supports to be run by the states. They argued there was a "significant risk" that people with disability could end up in hospitals or other inappropriate settings, or have no access to services at all. They also stated that states and territories were not in a position to deliver like-for-like services to those exited from the NDIS.

Opposition Perspective: Shadow NDIS minister Melissa McIntosh criticized the government's rush to reform, arguing that changes affecting the lives of hundreds of thousands of Australians should not be rushed through without proper consideration.

Corrections and Clarifications

Health Minister Mark Butler said in April that the overhaul would result in 160,000 fewer people on the scheme by 2031 compared to today. The Treasury modelling subsequently revealed that this figure was a combination of 80,000 new entrants expected between now and 2031 and 240,000 people exiting the scheme. The inquiry also heard that the modelling figures were "high level assumptions," not yet subject to detailed assessment thresholds, and could not be broken down by state or region.

The government expects the changes will save more than $30 billion over the next four years alone, according to officials. The Senate inquiry is set to continue next week, with further hearings expected to examine the impacts of the proposed changes.