Liberals claim victory in Nepean byelection ahead of state poll

Lead

The Liberal Party has retained the Victorian state seat of Nepean in a by-election held on Saturday, with former Mornington Shire Council mayor Anthony Marsh projected as the winner. The result, reported by multiple outlets including ABC Australia and The Guardian, gives the opposition a boost but also reveals vulnerabilities that could complicate its path to government in November's state election.

The by-election was triggered by the sudden resignation of former deputy Liberal leader and tennis player Sam Groth in February. Labor did not field a candidate, leaving Marsh to face challenges from One Nation's Darren Hercus and independent Tracee Hutchison.

Coverage Comparison

Reports from all five monitored outlets agree on the core outcome: Marsh won the seat, which the Liberal Party has held for all but one term over the past 40 years. However, the framing differs. Some reports, including one from ABC Australia, emphasized the relief of holding the seat and the challenges revealed by the result. Another ABC report took a more analytical angle, focusing on the internal party turmoil and the broader political context. The Guardian's coverage stressed the "significant boost" for Opposition Leader Jess Wilson while noting the substantial primary vote swing against the Liberals.

The most striking divergence lies in the emphasis on One Nation's performance. Two ABC reports and The Guardian highlighted the 24.7% primary vote for Darren Hercus as a warning sign, with some outlets describing it as a "surging" challenge. One ABC analysis used more cautious language, noting that the party's primary vote dropped 9.6% and that such a swing in November would likely prevent the Liberals from forming government.

Key Claims

• Anthony Marsh's victory: All five reports confirm that former Mornington Shire Council mayor Anthony Marsh is projected as the next member for Nepean. Marsh, who joined the Liberal Party only weeks before the by-election, was previously an independent councillor and small business owner. Reports note he does not live in the electorate and could not vote for himself, a point he acknowledged in his victory speech.

• Primary vote figures: Marsh secured roughly 40% of the primary vote, according to reports based on partial counting. With close to 80% of the vote counted, The Guardian reported Marsh had 38.5% of the primary vote and 63.4% on a two-candidate basis.

• One Nation and independent results: One Nation's Darren Hercus, a civil engineer and business owner, took 24.7% of the primary vote, while independent Tracee Hutchison received 21.3%. Early counting initially placed Hutchison in second before Hercus moved ahead.

• Swing against the Liberals: The Liberal Party's primary vote fell by 9.6% in this by-election, according to an ABC analysis. This figure was reported by a single outlet and has not been independently confirmed.

• The by-election's trigger: The seat was vacated by Sam Groth, who resigned in February. Groth was the deputy Liberal leader at the time of his exit.

Perspectives

The result is being interpreted differently by the political actors involved. Marsh told supporters he was "so glad I could bring it home for you tonight," and described the win as "the honour of my life." He pledged to continue fighting for local issues, including the promised rebuild of Rosebud Hospital, local roads, and crime.

Opposition Leader Jess Wilson acknowledged the victory was not a cause for complacency. "We will take the learnings and what we take away is that we have more work to do," she said, adding that the party would fight daily to "earn the trust of Victorians."

One Nation's Darren Hercus characterized the result as a sign of voter dissatisfaction, telling reporters, "We've had a few Liberal voters come over to us for frustrations they've been feeling with their own party." He described the race as tight and said voters were "fed up with empty promises."

The outcome comes just six months before the 2026 Victorian general election, where the governing Labor Party, in power for 12 years, will seek a fourth term. With Labor's support reportedly sliding, and both major parties facing challenges from independents and minor parties, analysts suggest the by-election may be a preview of a more fragmented political landscape.