Lead

South Korean stocks have experienced a turbulent month, with the benchmark KOSPI index swinging sharply in response to developments in the U.S.-Iran conflict. On multiple occasions, the index opened sharply higher on hopes for de-escalation, only to face renewed volatility as diplomatic efforts stalled and threats of military action resurfaced.

Coverage Comparison

Reports from Yonhap News, the leading South Korean wire service, have tracked the market's reaction to each twist in the Middle East crisis. The coverage has consistently linked market movements to statements from U.S. President Donald Trump, diplomatic overtures from Iran, and developments in the crucial Strait of Hormuz.

On April 1, the KOSPI opened 5.49% higher after Trump said the United States could end its military operation against Iran within "two or three weeks," according to multiple reports. The index rose 246.56 points, or 4.88%, to 5,299.02 in the first 15 minutes of trading, prompting the Korea Exchange to activate a buy-side sidecar, temporarily halting program-driven buy orders.

The next day, April 2, stocks opened higher again, with the KOSPI rising 63.11 points, or 1.15%, to 5,541.81 in the first 15 minutes, as Trump hinted in a Reuters interview that the United States would be "out of Iran pretty quickly" and could return for "spot hits" if necessary. However, Trump also claimed on Truth Social that Iran's "new regime president" had asked for a ceasefire, a claim Iran's foreign ministry dismissed as "false and baseless."

On April 3, the index continued its upward trajectory, rising 172.7 points, or 3.3%, to 5,406.75 in early trading, buoyed by reports that Iran was drafting a protocol with Oman to monitor traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. According to foreign media reports cited by Yonhap, Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi said the protocol would require ships to obtain permits and licenses, raising hopes for progress in reopening the waterway.

However, on April 6, the market opened higher but with caution, rising 110.84 points, or 2.06%, to 5,488.14 as of 9:15 a.m., after Trump over the weekend warned of striking Iran's infrastructure unless Tehran opened the Strait by Tuesday evening. Analysts noted that investors remained cautious ahead of Samsung Electronics' earnings guidance.

On April 8, the KOSPI opened sharply higher, rising 331.13 points, or 6.03%, to 5,825.91 as of 9:20 a.m., after Iran said it would guarantee safe passage through the Strait during a two-week ceasefire period. Trump, in a social media post, said the United States would suspend attacks if Tehran agreed to the "complete, immediate and safe opening" of the strait, and that Iran had submitted a 10-point proposal he considered a "workable basis" for negotiation. Iran's foreign ministry accepted the two-week ceasefire.

Despite these apparent breakthroughs, the market remained susceptible to setbacks. On April 14, the KOSPI opened 2.61% higher, adding 146.28 points to 5,954.9, as Trump claimed Iran had reached out on potential peace talks while the U.S. Navy began a naval blockade. However, U.S.-Iran peace talks over the weekend had failed to resolve differences.

By April 20, the market opened only marginally higher, up 0.01%, amid renewed tensions after Iran's military warned it would respond to a U.S. attack on an Iranian-flagged vessel that attempted to violate the naval blockade. Iran had earlier announced the Strait would reopen but closed it again after the attack.

Later in April, as hopes for a diplomatic breakthrough faded, the market showed resilience. On April 27, the KOSPI rose 69.95 points, or 1.08%, to 6,545.58, even as Trump canceled U.S. negotiators' trip to Pakistan and a gunman opened fire at the White House correspondents' dinner, forcing Trump's evacuation. Analysts said investors were focusing on central bank policy and earnings from big tech firms.

On April 28, the KOSPI continued to climb, rising 58.65 points, or 0.89%, to 6,673.68 as of 11:20 a.m., topping the 6,700-point mark intraday, as investors snapped up tech shares ahead of U.S. earnings. Again, peace talks remained stalled, with Trump expected to meet national security officials and Iran's foreign minister meeting Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Key Claims

  • The KOSPI rose sharply on several occasions in April, with gains of 4.88%, 6.03%, and 3.3% recorded in the first 15 minutes of trading on April 1, April 8, and April 3, respectively, according to Yonhap.
  • U.S. President Donald Trump made multiple statements about ending military operations against Iran, including saying the conflict could end within "two or three weeks" and that the United States could be "out of Iran pretty quickly," as reported by Yonhap.
  • Iran announced a two-week ceasefire and guaranteed safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz, according to Yonhap, citing Iranian officials.
  • The conflict began in late February following U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran, as stated in multiple Yonhap reports.
  • Oil prices remained elevated, with Brent crude above $100 per barrel at a three-week high on April 28, according to Yonhap.

Perspectives

Market resilience view

Some analyses emphasize the market's ability to look past geopolitical shocks, focusing on earnings and central bank policy. For instance, on April 27, analysts noted that investors turned their focus to central bank decisions and tech earnings, leading to a record high despite faltering peace hopes.

Diplomatic optimism view

Other reports highlight periods of optimism based on diplomatic gestures, such as the Iran-Oman protocol and the two-week ceasefire, which drove sharp market gains and the activation of trading halts. These developments were seen as potential pathways to reopening the Strait and stabilizing oil markets.

Cautionary view

A third perspective stresses continued uncertainty and volatility, with analysts warning of escalation risks. On April 20, for example, an analyst at Kiwoom Securities predicted increased volatility as Iran threatened retaliation and peace talks failed to progress.