Latin America's Rightward Shift: A Wave of Populism or a Cycle of Outsider Politics?
A new wave of right-wing populist leaders is sweeping across Latin America, with the latest victory in Colombia where Abelardo de la Espriella won the presidential election over left-wing opponent Ivan Cepeda, according to reports from the Buenos Aires Times and Deutsche Welle. The trend is broad, with right-wing forces now governing from Argentina to Honduras, but analysts caution that the shift may be more about political style than ideological commitment.
The New Faces of the Right
In Colombia, De la Espriella's campaign focused heavily on the nation's security crisis, a tactic that resonated with voters. His style has drawn comparisons to El Salvador's Nayib Bukele, who has jailed nearly two percent of his country's population and is widely credited with reducing crime. Bukele's approach, offering simple solutions to crime and economic stagnation, has made him immensely popular at home and across the region, and his model has been replicated by other leaders. Some Colombian commentators have jokingly dubbed De la Espriella the "Temu Bukele," a reference to the Chinese e-commerce site known for affordable imitations.
In Chile, Jose Antonio Kast took office in March after defeating a leftist government. Kast, who openly praises the dictatorship of General Augusto Pinochet (1973-1990), has pursued cuts to education and welfare while implementing tax cuts for businesses. Argentina's Javier Milei, a self-described admirer of US President Donald Trump, has been in power since 2023, also betting on austerity to address the nation's financial woes.
A Regional Pattern
Beyond these high-profile cases, right-wing, conservative, or economic liberalist forces now govern Bolivia, Costa Rica, Ecuador, El Salvador, Honduras, Panama, Paraguay, and Peru. In contrast, Brazil, Cuba, Guatemala, Mexico, Nicaragua, Uruguay, and Venezuela are led by leftist-liberal or far-left governments. Brazil, the region's largest country, will hold elections this fall, pitting incumbent Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva against Flavio Bolsonaro, the far-right son of the country's jailed former president, Jair Bolsonaro.
Drivers of the Shift
Experts see little evidence of a structural ideological shift among Latin American voters. Instead, they point to a political landscape that favors outsiders—candidates from outside the traditional political establishment. Lisa Zanotti, a researcher at the Institute of Democracy at Central European University in Budapest, argues that what unites the winners is their ability to channel public resentment, build a powerful personal brand, and forge strategic alliances. "Presidential elections allow political entrepreneurs to bypass weak or discredited parties and establish a direct relationship with voters," she said.
Anthony Pereira of Tulane University in the United States sees Latin American populism as a constantly evolving tradition. "In the 2000s we saw the 'Pink Tide' governments in Latin America," he said, referring to the wave of leftist leaders who gained power through welfare programs. The current rightward shift, he suggests, is part of this cyclical pattern.
Sabine Kurtenbach, head of the German Institute for Global and Area Studies in Hamburg, attributes recent right-wing victories to three closely related issues: extreme social inequality, crime, and public disillusionment with traditional parties. According to Kurtenbach, these factors have created a fertile ground for populist messages that promise quick fixes.
A Persistent Trend?
The question of whether this rightward trend is here to stay remains open. Political control has reversed in eight Latin American countries since 2023—left to right in six cases, right to left in the other two—according to Deutsche Welle. The outcomes of upcoming elections, particularly in Brazil, will be a key indicator of the movement's durability. For now, the region's political landscape appears to be shaped more by the appeal of strongman figures and outsider narratives than by a lasting ideological realignment.