Trump announces 'historic' Hamas disarmament deal, but questions remain

US President Donald Trump announced on Thursday that the Board of Peace, the body set up to oversee Gaza's reconstruction and political transition, has reached what he called a "historic agreement" for the "complete disarmament" of Hamas and all other armed groups in Gaza. In a statement posted on Truth Social, Trump described the deal as "a monumental step toward lasting peace and security" and said it would be carried out in "carefully structured phases."

"As disarmament is completed, Israeli forces will withdraw, and the International Stabilization Force will work with a new Palestinian police force to take responsibility for Gaza being safe for its residents and its neighbors," Trump wrote. He also thanked Egypt, Qatar, and Turkey for their roles as mediators, and added that "the threat that emerged from Gaza on October 7 will NOT be allowed to rebuild."

Hamas officials have confirmed that an agreement has been reached, with a senior Hamas official telling AFP "an agreement has been reached regarding the issue of weapons." Senior Hamas official Bassem Naim also confirmed the deal in a post on X. The group said it negotiated "responsibly and positively" and reached "national consensus" among Palestinian factions, according to a BBC report.

However, Israel has not yet responded to the announcement. An anonymous Israeli official told Reuters that Israel had rejected the proposal, demanding complete disarmament of Hamas as a precondition for any withdrawal. Israeli political sources told AFP that the proposed deal does not "satisfactorily" address Israeli demands, and a senior Israeli official insisted that Israel will not withdraw from Gaza until Hamas disarms.

The 20-point plan and the roadmap for disarmament

The announcement comes nine months after a US-brokered ceasefire ended two years of heavy bombardment in Gaza, a conflict that began with Hamas's attacks on Israel on October 7, 2023, in which almost 1,200 Israelis were killed and about 250 hostages were taken. At the time of the ceasefire, the death toll in Gaza had surpassed 70,000, according to Palestinian health authorities.

Central to the ceasefire was a "20-point peace plan" proposed by the United States, which included the creation of the Board of Peace to oversee the transition and manage implementation. The second phase of the plan was to involve Hamas's disarmament and a gradual Israeli withdrawal.

The Board of Peace has now published a 15-point roadmap, and the BBC has seen a four-page plan detailing the phased disarmament of Hamas and gradual Israeli withdrawal. Under the plan, "a process shall begin to inventory and store heavy weapons, military production sites, weapons depots, and tunnels" — conditional on Israel meeting its commitments under the initial ceasefire agreement reached in October last year.

The process would be overseen by the Palestinian National Committee, a group of independent technocrats to which Hamas has agreed to hand over power, and with the deployment of the International Stabilisation Force to Gaza. The documents specify that "no weapons shall be transferred or handed over to Israel or to any non-Palestinian party."

The roadmap sets out a three-year transition to a demilitarised Gaza. Under a US-backed proposal, Hamas and Israel would have 14 days to finalise Gaza's political transition before Hamas disarms and Israel begins withdrawing. The timeframe would be "in a gradual, sequential, and time-bound manner, based on an implementation schedule to be prepared within 14 days," according to a BBC report.

Heavy weapons, including Hamas's remaining rockets, would be moved into secure storage managed by the National Committee, and underground tunnel networks, weapons stores, and manufacturing sites would be mapped and destroyed. Remaining personal arms and police weapons would be handed over in stages to a new Palestinian police force under International Stabilisation Force supervision. Hundreds of new Palestinian police recruits have been trained in Egypt and Jordan, and Israel's cabinet has approved some 200 international troops from "friendly countries" as part of the force, though it has not yet been deployed.

The plan also addresses the fate of other Palestinian factions and armed groups. Hamas has been seeking assurances that pro-Israel militias in Gaza will be dismantled and will also give up their arms. The Rada Force, Hamas's special security unit, has called on Palestinians to target leading figures in these militias, and a key militia figure in Gaza told the Jerusalem Post he does not believe Hamas will disarm.

The Palestinian Islamic Jihad has agreed to the disarmament deal, according to a report by Saudi state-owned Al-Hadath, citing a source familiar with the matter.

Skepticism and ongoing obstacles

Despite the announcement, several Middle East analysts have expressed skepticism that Hamas would willingly lay down its arms, or that Israel would agree to completely withdraw from Gaza.

Martin Kear, a Middle East politics analyst at the University of Sydney, told ABC NewsRadio Breakfast that "I would find it difficult to believe that Hamas has agreed to completely disarm," noting that in the past, disarmament has always been contingent on Israel ceasing its occupation of the West Bank, Gaza Strip, and East Jerusalem. He added that Israeli leaders had previously stated "categorically" they would not give up any ground in Gaza.

Ian Parmeter, an analyst at the Australian National University, told the ABC that "if Israel's unhappy, it's not going to work, because there's zero trust between [Hamas and Israel]."

Israeli officials have reiterated that there will be no withdrawal from the Yellow Line, the agreed ceasefire boundary, until Hamas is disarmed. Israel currently controls more than 60% of Gaza, up from the 53% agreed to in the October ceasefire deal. Satellite imagery and witnesses have documented the concrete blocks marking the Yellow Line being moved further into Gaza, and the IDF has issued a map showing a new "Orange Line" with warnings about movement in that zone.

Netanyahu and senior ministers have stated categorically they will not give up any ground in Gaza. Itamar Ben-Gvir, a senior Israeli politician, said the plan is "not acceptable" to Israel.

Hamas, for its part, has conditioned giving up its heavy weapons on Israel ending "all forms of aggression" and withdrawing its forces from Gaza. A member of the Hamas delegation told Al Jazeera that all implementation would be conditioned on Israel implementing its part of the deal.

In an interview with British journalist Piers Morgan, Hamas negotiator Ghazi Hamad said that "resisting the occupation is its holy mission" and that Hamas has not changed its mentality or goal to end the occupation. He described the deal as an "exceptional phase" due to the hard circumstances in Gaza, but did not answer when asked when Hamas would disarm, saying the group might use "different tactics, different tools, different methods." He also said he does not believe Israel will fulfill its commitments, citing a "state of arrogance, state of supremacy."

Continued violence and stalled reconstruction

Despite the ceasefire, violence has continued in Gaza. Israeli strikes killed at least four people, including two children, on Thursday, according to health officials. According to figures from the Hamas health ministry, at least 1,168 Palestinians, including children, have been killed in Israeli attacks since the ceasefire took effect, and four Israeli soldiers have been killed in Palestinian attacks. Israel has also destroyed more than 1,500 buildings in areas of Gaza that have remained under its control since the ceasefire.

The reconstruction effort has faced significant obstacles. The Board of Peace, chaired by Trump and led by a team that includes his son-in-law Jared Kushner, has issued its first construction contract in Gaza — but it is for a military outpost rather than civilian reconstruction. The contract, awarded to Arkel International, a Louisiana-based firm, is for a 100-metre by 120-metre base to house 150 Moroccan troops, located in the 60% of Gaza under Israeli control. The original plan for a 5,000-person base was scaled down.

The Board of Peace official said contracts are not finalized, and "one prospective contract concerns facilities to support the ISF." Member countries have pledged $17 billion for reconstruction, but only a fraction has been received. The US has notified Congress of more than $206 million in funding for the International Stabilization Force, the first concrete US spending on the force, but the final composition of the force is still being negotiated.

At least 80% of Gaza's buildings were damaged or destroyed in the war, and ten months after the ceasefire, most of Gaza's 2 million people are still living in makeshift and unsanitary camps, according to a Guardian report.

The process is set to begin "soon," but an exact timeline has not been given. Cairo is set to host a meeting "soon" of the Gaza truce mediators, according to state-linked Al-Qahera News, to discuss implementing the second phase of the ceasefire plan.