A Crisis on the Farm
For nearly 16 years, Wendy Johnson has tried to build an Iowa farm that could survive the kinds of economic shocks that drove farmers out of business when she was growing up in the 1980s. She diversified, raised livestock, sold directly to consumers, and avoided debt. But the latest crisis has defied her careful planning: President Donald Trump’s tariffs and his war with Iran have driven up the cost of fertilizer, fuel, and machinery just as weak crop prices have made it harder to cover those rising expenses.
“I am afraid that we’re looking into the barrel of another farm crisis,” said Johnson, a fourth-generation farmer who estimates her profits are down by as much as 50%. “And we all know historically what that did to our … rural communities.”
Johnson is among American farmers who say they are desperate for relief from Washington as administration policies raise input costs and slash profits. Just last week, Trump slapped 50% tariffs on Canada, a critical source of fertilizer and farm equipment. And he wrote in a Truth Social post that he would pause tariffs on some imported ground beef in an effort to lower grocery prices, infuriating U.S. cattle ranchers who say the move would undermine domestic herders.
The Economic Squeeze
The Iran conflict has sent energy prices up. Gasoline climbed from around $3 a gallon before the war to more than $4, according to a report, quietly pushing a household budgets and undercutting Trump’s promise to bring down everyday expenses. Higher fuel costs make running tractors and other machinery more expensive, and fertilizer prices have also soared.
“Inputs are way out of whack,” Matt Bailey, a Nebraska farmer who grows corn and soybeans, told the Financial Times. A phosphorus fertilizer he uses that cost about $470 a ton a decade ago now sells for more than $900. “Where do you start with that? How do you budget for that?”
The squeeze extends across nearly every part of farming. Interest payments, labor, machinery, and fertilizer have all become more expensive, Brad Lubben, an agricultural economist at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln, told the Financial Times. “If you look at all the components of the production budget, most of them have gone up substantially over the past few years,” he said.
Pam Johnson, a northern Iowa farmer and former president of the National Corn Growers Association, said the Iran conflict has only added to the uncertainty. “The Iran war has made so much uncertainty for us as farmers,” she said. “It’s projected that farmers aren’t going to make any money for the next two years.”
John Dittrich, a Nebraska farmer with 44 years of experience, called the risks facing producers “unprecedented.”
Political Fallout and Polling
Trump’s trade war has also contributed to an almost $15 billion decline in U.S. agricultural exports to China, according to a Daily Beast account. John Hansen, president of the Nebraska Farmers Union, called the downturn the worst financial crisis in the sector since the 1980s.
The backlash is showing up in polling. Fox News polling showed Trump’s approval among rural voters fell from 70% in January 2025 to 51% in June, and then to 44% last month. Trump won 69% of rural voters in 2024, according to Pew, while farming-dependent counties in the Corn Belt backed him by an average of 78%, according to Investigate Midwest.
Senator Tillis said: “We’ve got 71 days [until the midterm elections] and right now we don’t have a positive message to sell farm country, and we haven’t since liberation day last year.”
The Farm Bill and Emergency Aid
The federal farm bill – the traditional source of agricultural subsidies, crop insurance, and other support – is nearly eight years old and has been temporarily extended three times, with the latest extension expiring at the end of September. A divided Congress is far from agreement on how to replace it.
To tide over rural America, Republican leaders are trying to pass $12 billion in emergency aid, but their plan would pair that money with billions of dollars for the Iran war. That combination has drawn a mixed reaction.
Ben LaCross, president of the Michigan Farm Bureau, supports the emergency assistance and praised the Trump administration’s efforts to expand market access for agricultural commodities. But the National Ocracy Union wrote a July letter to House Speaker Mike Johnson and Hakeem Jeffries opposing funding that perpetuates a costly military conflict. Aaron Lehman, president of the Iowa Farmers Union, said pairing the aid with war funding is not the right approach. As he told the Times of London, “The trade and the war stuff … it’s extremely chaotic. No one knows what’s going on. And we are right at the front end of the damage.”
Complications continue on Capitol Hill. In early August, Democrats blocked Republicans from advancing the farm bill out of the Senate Agriculture Committee. The emergency aid package also includes stricter voting rules, and GOP plans to pass it via reconciliation were scrapped.
The Human Cost
Farmers across the country are feeling the pain. Russell Boening, a Texas farmer, said dry areas of his ranch have been growing rice for generations, but this year the farm’s bottom line will take as much as a 40% hit. In some areas, “We’re not going to survive,” he said.
Senate Agriculture Committee Chair John Boozman echoed a grim assessment: “Farmers are losing money on virtually every crop in every region of the country.”
Yet some see promise. Ben LaCross, president of the Michigan Farm Bureau, said he is cautiously optimistic about the market opportunities created by the emergency assistance and the administration’s trade policies, though he acknowledged the costs are still tough.
With three competitive House seats and a competitive Senate train in Iowa ahead of the November elections, the farm crisis is likely to reverberate on the campaign trail. As one Nebraska farmer remarked, the situation is unlike anything he has seen in his 44 years.