Lead

Voters across England, Wales, and Scotland go to the polls on Thursday amid forecasts that Labour could suffer its heaviest local election defeat in modern history. Prime Minister Keir Starmer made a final pitch on Thursday, urging voters to back Labour and warning that his main rivals — Reform's Nigel Farage and the Greens' Zack Polanski — are "not fit to meet this moment of great global instability."

Speaking on the day of the vote, Starmer framed the election as a clear choice between Labour's record and the alternatives. "Today when you put your vote in the ballot box, you face a clear choice," he said, according to The Guardian. "Progress and a better future for the community you call home, with a Labour council working with a Labour government. Versus the anger and division offered up by Reform or empty promises from the Greens."

His appeal comes as polling projections suggest Labour's support has fallen dramatically since the last local elections, raising questions about the strength of his leadership amid broader voter dissatisfaction with the two main parties.

Coverage comparison

Two separate analyses published by The Guardian — both covering the same set of elections — converge on the central finding: Labour is expected to suffer unprecedented losses. The first report cites national polling and expert projections, while the second focuses on the political stakes for Starmer and Labour's internal expectations.

Both accounts highlight the potential scale of defeat. According to Stephen Fisher, a professor of political sociology at the University of Oxford, Labour could lose around 1,900 councillors — a figure that represents about 74% of the seats it currently holds that are up for re-election. Such a result, the Guardian reports in its first analysis, would mark "the worst local election performance for any prime minister since comparable data began."

Notably, both sources point to the challenge Labour faces not only from the right but also from the left and from nationalist parties. The first report details how Reform, the Greens, and nationalist parties are all expected to make substantial gains in what it describes as a collapse in Labour's vote share — a claim supported across both articles.

Key claims

  • Labour's vote share could fall to historic lows across council elections in England and devolved parliaments in Wales and Scotland, according to polling analysed by The Guardian.
  • Reform, the Greens, and nationalist parties are expected to make significant gains, per the same analysis.
  • In Wales, Labour's vote share is projected to fall by more than half — enough to push the party into third place, with Reform and Plaid Cymru vying for first, as reported in one of the Guardian articles.
  • Stephen Fisher estimates Labour will lose approximately 1,900 councillors on 7 May — a projection carried by both Guardian reports.
  • Under Fisher's estimates, the Conservatives are also set for a net loss of 1,010 councillors, a figure that appears in one of the analyses.
  • Keir Starmer told voters that Farage and Polanski are "not fit" to govern during a period of global instability, and that only Labour is prioritising the national interest, as quoted in the Guardian's second report.
  • Labour hopes to highlight early holds in London — including Westminster and Wandsworth, traditionally Conservative councils — to argue results are not as bad as predicted, according to one report.
  • YouGov's final MRP model of the 2026 Holyrood election suggests the SNP will fall just short of the 65 seats needed for a majority in the 129-member Scottish parliament, as reported by one source.

Perspectives

Labour's perspective

Party leaders, including Starmer, are casting the election as a choice between Labour's offer of stability and working councils versus the "anger and division" of Reform and the "empty promises" of the Greens. Starmer's message emphasises that Labour is the only party putting the national interest first.

Expert/analyst perspective

Analysts such as Stephen Fisher foresee a historic rout, with Labour losing three-quarters of the seats it is defending. While such projections rely on polling models rather than actual results, the consistency across data sources points to a significant erosion of Labour support.

Rival parties' perspective

Reform, the Greens, and nationalist parties stand to benefit from Labour's decline. The first Guardian report suggests Reform could gain over 2,000 councillors, tripling its local representation, while the SNP is expected to remain the largest party in Holyrood. These parties present themselves as alternatives to a Labour government that has disappointed its base.

Voter sentiment

Underlying the projections is a broader sense of disillusionment with Britain's two main parties, as voters drift to smaller parties across the political spectrum. This shift appears across England, Wales, and Scotland, suggesting a fragmented political landscape that may not settle quickly after the votes are counted.

As the results unfold, the focus will likely be on whether Labour's losses match the worst-case forecasts and how Starmer responds to the pressure — a test that could shape the remainder of his premiership.