Kazakhstan's future after the elections: Russia, EU or China

A snap vote with a predictable outcome

Kazakhstan is holding a snap parliamentary election on August 23, a vote expected to strengthen President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev’s hold on power in Central Asia’s largest nation. Polls opened Sunday for the 145 seats of the Kurultai, the country’s new unicameral legislature, replacing the previous bicameral system that consisted of the Mazhilis and Senate.

The election follows a constitutional overhaul Tokayev initiated in March, when 87% of voters supported a referendum to merge the two chambers into one. The changes, which took effect on July 1, also allow presidents to serve a single seven-year term—but the Constitutional Court ruled that the amendments reset the clock on Tokayev’s previous terms, allowing him to seek another term when his current one ends. On the very day the new system came into force, Tokayev signed the decree calling the snap vote.

The ruling Adilet party—whose name translates as “Justice”—is widely predicted to win an overwhelming majority. Under the new rules, parties must receive at least 5% of the vote to enter parliament, and seven parties have been registered: Adilet, Auyl, Aq Jol, the People’s Party of Kazakhstan, the Nationwide Social Democratic Party, Baytaq, and Respublica. Notably, Amanat, the party that dominated Kazakh politics since the 1990s, dissolved itself into Adilet in June, a move seen as an attempt to distance from former President Nursultan Nazarbayev, who led the country from 1991 to 2019.

Adilet’s campaign message is “Just Kazakhstan,” with pledges to raise household incomes, strengthen the economy, and improve public services, infrastructure, and digitalisation. Opinion polls suggest the party will secure a large majority, a scenario echoed by experts. However, the scope for genuine political choice remains narrow: independent candidates are no longer allowed to run, a point criticised by former senator Zauresh Battalova, who now heads the Foundation for the Development of Parliamentarism in Kazakhstan.

Consolidating power and economic pressures

The election is intended to consolidate Tokayev’s power and further weaken the bloc led by Nazarbayev, according to two experts cited by Deutsche Welle: Luca Anceschi, professor of Eurasian Studies at the University of Glasgow, and Stefan Meister, head of the Center for Order and Governance in Eastern Europe, Russia and Central Asia at the German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP). Anceschi suggested the new parliament will do what it has always done—"pretty much to represent whatever the regime wants them to do"—and predicted no genuine opposition representatives will be elected. Meister echoed that the ruling party is likely to win, as reflected in recent polls.

Tokayev called the vote a “truly historic event,” predicting it would be remembered as “perhaps the most interesting in our country’s history.” The 73-year-old, a former Soviet official and UN diplomat in office since 2019, has justified the constitutional changes by citing the need for rapid decision-making in a fast-changing world.

The election comes at a difficult economic moment. Inflation hit 10.2% in February, and tax hikes have fueled public discontent. Analysts say authorities are wary of a repeat of the January 2022 unrest, when fuel price protests spiraled into violence that left dozens dead. The Associated Press reported that Tokayev is seeking to guard against such a scenario by concentrating power in his own hands.

Kazakhstan’s economy has shown resilience overall: GDP increased by 6.5% to about $335 billion in 2025, according to Al Jazeera, which also reported that the country accounts for about 2% of daily world oil supply, with most exports shipped via the Caspian Pipeline Consortium to Russia’s Novorossiysk port. That pipeline and tankers serving it have periodically come under attack by Ukrainian drones, causing export disruptions.

Press freedom concerns

The campaign has been marked by concerns over press freedom. The Associated Press reported that authorities have opened roughly 10 criminal cases against independent journalists and popular bloggers. One prominent case is that of Lukpan Akhmedyarov, a journalist charged with “disseminating false information” after publishing a list of Kazakhstani citizens fighting in Ukraine; he faces up to seven years in prison. Akhmedyarov told the AP that “repression has intensified sharply” and that streets are “flooded with advertisements” for Adilet, adding that it is “not very difficult to predict the outcome” of the election.

Geopolitical balancing act

Kazakhstan’s election comes as Astana seeks to assert itself as a key power in Central Asia and showcase its democratic credentials. Al Jazeera reported that Kazakhstan has preferred a neutral role in Moscow’s war on Ukraine and has offered itself as a venue for peace talks in the US-Iran conflict. The country has not officially opposed European sanctions against Russia, nor has it joined them. In November 2025, Kazakhstan signed a $4.2 billion agreement with US locomotive parts maker Wabtec for 300 kits to build locomotives, a sign of expanding ties beyond its traditional partners.

According to Nargis Kassenova, a scholar cited by Al Jazeera, Kazakhstan has begun positioning itself as a middle power.

Deutsche Welle’s analysis highlighted the European dimension. Kazakhstan became the second-largest oil exporter to the EU in 2025, with a 12.8% share—amounting to 55.8 million tons of crude oil. Experts Anceschi and Meister argued that the EU is unlikely to react to the deterioration in political freedoms in Kazakhstan, as Brussels has adopted a more pragmatic approach to Central Asia since the war in Ukraine, focusing on trade routes and resources. Meister described Kazakhstan as the “least repressive authoritarian country” in the region, but noted a narrowing civil society space. Anceschi spoke of an “authoritarian backslide” not only in Kazakhstan but also in other EU partner countries.

What might change?

Political analyst Rustam Burnashev told Al Jazeera that while the snap election offers Tokayev a chance to remove figures associated with Nazarbayev, major reform of the political system is unlikely. Voter sentiment reflects a broader ambivalence: Atapsha, a 73-year-old fruit seller, told Al Jazeera, “I’ve been waiting for things to get better for 73 years.”

Observers from the OSCE Parliamentary Assembly are deploying nearly 80 parliamentarians and staff from about 30 countries to monitor the vote. The election is the first under the new constitutional system, and its outcome, while not in doubt, will shape how Kazakhstan balances its relationships with Russia, China, and the European Union in the years ahead.

Perspectives

• Kazakh government: The election is a “truly historic event” that follows constitutional reforms supporting rapid decision-making; the changes strengthen the president’s ability to govern and modernise the country.
• Experts (Anceschi, Meister): The election is designed to consolidate Tokayev’s power and weaken the Nazarbayev bloc; the new parliament will largely represent the regime’s wishes, and the EU is unlikely to push back on democratic backsliding due to pragmatic interests.
• Journalist Lukpan Akhmedyarov: Repression against independent media has intensified sharply; the outcome of the election is not difficult to predict.
• Former senator Zauresh Battalova: The lack of independent candidates and narrow political choice undermine the election’s democratic credentials.