International brokerage Jefferies has reaffirmed its preference for electronics component maker Kaynes Technology over mobile assembly giant Dixon Technologies, as India accelerates efforts to deepen domestic manufacturing of electronics components. The firm also advised caution on Syrma SGS Technology, which has seen a sharp rally this year.
Jefferies has a 'Buy' rating on Kaynes Technology with a target price of Rs 4,480, while maintaining 'Hold' ratings on Dixon Technologies (target: Rs 12,730) and Syrma SGS Technology (target: Rs 1,430).
India's Electronics Production Growth
According to Jefferies, India's electronics production has more than doubled over five years, rising from around Rs 5 lakh crore in FY21 to Rs 1 lakh crore in FY26. Mobile phones account for nearly half of this production, but domestic value addition remains below 15%.
The brokerage noted that the government is now focusing on deepening the component ecosystem. The Mobile Production-Linked Incentive (PLI) scheme, covering FY21-FY26, helped India assemble almost 99% of mobile phones domestically. The next phase, Jefferies said, will focus more on components.
ECMS: Building the Missing Supply Chain
The Electronics Components Manufacturing Scheme (ECMS) aims to create a robust local supply chain. So far, 106 projects have been approved under the scheme, against 249 initial applications. Around 38 plants have already started production, while 16 more are at advanced stages of construction or machinery installation. The approved investment is about Rs 69,500 crore across 14 states.
Jefferies expects ECMS to address around 50% of the mobile bill of materials by the end of its six-year tenure. Printed circuit boards (PCBs) could be one of the biggest opportunities, with the market estimated at around $7 billion. Currently, 85-90% of PCB requirements are met through imports, and imports of PCBs with up to six layers attract a 30% additional duty.
The brokerage believes foreign partnerships could help Indian manufacturers bridge technology gaps, citing examples such as Dixon-HKC, QTech, and Syrma-Shinhyup.
Stock Preferences and Valuation
Jefferies prefers component plays over assembly-focused companies like Dixon. The brokerage's 'Buy' on Kaynes Technology reflects this view, as the company is more focused on components.
Dixon Technologies trades at around 67 times one-year forward earnings, while Syrma SGS has gained around 105% year-to-date and trades at about 57 times one-year forward earnings.
Under the new Mobile Production-Linked Incentive scheme (MPMS), Jefferies expects mobile production to rise to around Rs 39 lakh crore, compared with Rs 25 lakh crore earlier. The brokerage also estimates that EMS companies could deliver an average 27% compound annual growth rate in earnings per share between FY26 and FY29.