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Jays must take full advantage of favourable schedule
As the MLB regular season enters its final month, the Toronto Blue Jays find themselves 1.5 games out of a wild-card spot with the second-easiest remaining schedule. Despite a struggling offense and Vladimir Guerrero Jr.'s down year, Toronto's path to the postseason is aided by a slate of sub-.500 opponents, while teams like Seattle and Cleveland also benefit from soft schedules.
With the regular season entering its final month, playoff spots remain contested across Major League Baseball. According to FanGraphs, five National League teams and three American League teams hold over a 90 percent chance to reach the postseason, leaving limited openings — especially in the American League wild-card picture.
In the AL East, the Tampa Bay Rays hold a three-game lead over the New York Yankees and, per FanGraphs, a 100 percent chance to make the playoffs. The Chicago White Sox lead the AL Central by 3.5 games over the Cleveland Guardians, while the Houston Astros and Texas Rangers are tied atop the AL West. With the division leaders seemingly secure, only one AL wild-card spot is genuinely up for grabs, and seven teams sit within 3.5 games of that final berth. As reported by Sports Illustrated, the Texas Rangers and Cleveland Guardians are tied for the third wild-card spot, with the Blue Jays 1.5 games back, the Minnesota Twins and Baltimore Orioles two games back, the Seattle Mariners 2.5 back, and the Detroit Tigers 3.5 back.
Sports Illustrated notes that the New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox have seen their playoff odds climb, with both teams holding over a 98 percent chance per FanGraphs. The Yankees lead the final wild-card spot by 9.5 games, and Boston by 6.5.
Toronto's Advantage: The Schedule
The Toronto Blue Jays just completed a grueling 13-game stretch against the Boston Red Sox, New York Yankees, and Tampa Bay Rays, going 8-5 to keep their postseason hopes alive, as reported by TSN. Now, the schedule turns favorable. According to TSN, Toronto has the second-easiest remaining schedule of all 30 teams, with opponents' winning percentage of .464. Only the Seattle Mariners have an easier slate (.448), while the Cleveland Guardians are third at .465.
Crucially, TSN reports that the Blue Jays do not play a single team with a record above .500 for the rest of the season. However, that doesn't guarantee success. Toronto's record against teams at or better than .500 is 33-42, and against sub-.500 teams it's 31-26 — a marginal improvement. TSN cautions that the Kansas City Royals, despite a disappointing season, have won eight straight games and represent six games on Toronto's schedule. The Blue Jays also face 15 games against other wild-card contenders.
Sports Illustrated independently highlights Toronto's favorable position, noting the Blue Jays have the second-easiest remaining schedule and are +210 to make the postseason. FanGraphs gives them an 18.8 percent chance to reach the playoffs, according to the same report.
Offensive Struggles and Pitching Concerns
Despite the schedule, Toronto's path is complicated by an offense that ranks 29th in runs per game and 28th in home runs, as reported by TSN. Vladimir Guerrero Jr., who returned from the concussion injured list on Saturday after a collision in the Yankees series, has just seven home runs this season. TSN frames Guerrero as the "main culprit" in the team's offensive struggles, asking whether he can salvage his season.
The starting rotation will also be critical. TSN suggests Spencer Arrighetti will likely take the fifth spot in place of a bullpen day, but notes the bullpen is vulnerable with Max Scherzer, Shane Bieber, and Arrighetti in line, who are less predictable than Dylan Cease and Jose Soriano.
Broader League Picture
Beyond Toronto, the playoff races are tightening in both leagues. Sports Illustrated reports that the Philadelphia Phillies have won nine straight games, cutting Atlanta's NL East lead to three games. The Los Angeles Dodgers have won six in a row and sit one game behind the Milwaukee Brewers for the top seed in the NL. The Dodgers, Brewers, Braves, Cubs, and Phillies occupy five of the top eight spots in World Series odds, with Los Angeles at +170, Milwaukee at +850, and Atlanta, Chicago, and Philadelphia each at +1400.
In the NL wild-card race, the Cubs are heavy favorites at -5000, with the Phillies at -1400 and the Padres at -295. The Arizona Diamondbacks have fallen to +175, two games behind San Diego for the final spot. FanGraphs gives the Padres a 60 percent chance to secure the last NL wild-card berth, with Arizona at 30.8 percent.
In the AL West, Sports Illustrated notes that Houston and Texas are tied atop the division, with FanGraphs giving the Astros a 38.4 percent chance to win the division and a 46.8 percent chance to make the playoffs — slightly ahead of Texas. The Mariners have the easiest remaining schedule in MLB, with 14 combined games against the Angels and Athletics, and FanGraphs gives them a 26.9 percent chance to win the AL West.
The Yankees, meanwhile, may have lost Giancarlo Stanton for the season due to a left calf injury, per TSN. Aaron Judge is starting baseball activities with hope for a September return, and Cody Bellinger was activated off the injured list on Sunday. Baltimore's Pete Alonso is hitting .488/.508/.845 over the past 15 games with seven home runs and 14 RBI, bringing his season total to 30 homers.
As the final month unfolds, the Blue Jays' favorable schedule provides a clear opportunity, but the team's inconsistent offense and a crowded wild-card race mean nothing is guaranteed. As TSN puts it, the schedule sounds easy, but it won't be — sometimes it's not who you play, but when you play them.
How each outlet told it
Sports Illustrated
Framing: Emphasizes playoff odds for every team, highlighting the Padres and Red Sox rising and the AL West as a toss-up. Does not focus on any one team's schedule or player performance. — Analytical and market-oriented, exemplified by 'there is betting value to be found in the playoff markets' and 'a few teams that I’d wager on to get into the final field in October.'
Facts Included:
According to FanGraphs, five teams in the National League and three teams in the American League have over a 90 percent chance to make the postseason.
Tampa Bay Rays: -20000, Chicago White Sox: -500, Houston Astros: +100 in AL division leader odds.
Tampa Bay has a three-game lead over New York in the AL East and a 100 percent chance to make the playoffs per FanGraphs.
Chicago White Sox have a 3.5-game cushion over the Cleveland Guardians in the AL Central.
Houston Astros are tied atop the AL West with the Texas Rangers.
FanGraphs gives Houston a 38.4 percent chance to win the division and a 46.8 percent chance to make the playoffs, slightly ahead of Texas.
Texas is +120 to make the playoffs; Seattle Mariners are +180 to make the playoffs.
Seattle has the easiest remaining schedule in MLB with 14 combined games against the Angels and Athletics.
FanGraphs gives Seattle a 26.9 percent chance to win the AL West.
AL wild card odds list includes New York Yankees -2000, Boston Red Sox -3000, Texas Rangers +120, Cleveland Guardians +160, Seattle Mariners +180, Toronto Blue Jays +210, Minnesota Twins +400, Baltimore Orioles +500, Detroit Tigers +800, Athletics +3500, Los Angeles Angels +3500, Kansas City Royals +3500.
Yankees and Red Sox have seen their odds skyrocket; New York has a 9.5-game cushion and Boston a 6.5-game lead; both over 98 percent chance per FanGraphs.
Toronto Blue Jays have the second-easiest remaining schedule and are +210 to make the postseason, 1.5 games out of the final playoff spot.
Blue Jays sold at the deadline; FanGraphs gives them an 18.8 percent chance to reach the postseason.
Detroit Tigers have fallen back in the odds after losing five games in a row.
NL division leaders: Milwaukee Brewers -20000, Los Angeles Dodgers -20000, Atlanta Braves -20000.
Philadelphia win streak has shortened Atlanta's division lead to three games.
Dodgers (+170), Brewers (+850), Braves (+1400), Cubs (+1400), Phillies (+1400) make up five of top eight World Series odds.
Dodgers have won six games in a row and are one game back of Milwaukee for the No. 1 seed.
Framing: Emphasizes the Blue Jays' favourable remaining schedule and the need to take advantage. Does not mention other teams' odds or the broader playoff picture. — Sympathetic and urgent, with phrases like 'Can Vladdy salvage his lost season?' and 'The Jays need Vladdy – the run producer with power, not the table setter.'
Facts Included:
The Blue Jays played a 13-game stretch against the Red Sox (4), Yankees (6), and Rays (3) and went 8-5.
The Rangers and Guardians are tied for the third wild-card spot; Blue Jays are 1.5 GB, Twins 2 GB, Orioles 2 GB, Mariners 2.5 GB, Tigers 3.5 GB.
The Blue Jays' record against teams at or better than .500 is 33-42, and against sub-.500 teams is 31-26.
Toronto has the second-easiest remaining schedule (.464 opponents' winning percentage) of all 30 teams.
The Mariners have a slightly easier schedule (.448) and the Guardians are third easiest (.465).
The Blue Jays play the Royals (six games) who have won eight straight games.
They play 15 games against other wild-card contenders.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. returned from the concussion IL on Saturday after a collision in the Yankee series.
Guerrero has just seven home runs this season.
The Jays are ranked 29th in runs per game and 28th in home runs.
The starting pitching rotation will be critical; Spencer Arrighetti likely takes the fifth spot in place of a bullpen day.
The bullpen is vulnerable with Max Scherzer, Shane Bieber, and Arrighetti in line; they are less predictable than Dylan Cease and Jose Soriano.
Dodgers' Tarik Skubal allowed three first-inning runs but retired 18 of final 19 batters; Pirates were 0-for-17 with 11 strikeouts after first time through lineup.
Yankees have likely lost Giancarlo Stanton for the season due to a left calf injury; Aaron Judge is starting baseball activities; Cody Bellinger activated Sunday.
Baltimore's Pete Alonso is hitting .488/.508/.845 over the past 15 games with two doubles, seven home runs, and 14 RBI; he has 30 homers this season.
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Claim
Confidence
Status
ClaimAccording to FanGraphs, five teams in the National League and three teams in the American League have over a 90 percent chance to make the postseason.