Japan plans releasing 20-day oil stock from reserves — Kyodo

Lead

Japan is considering releasing an additional 20 days' worth of oil from its strategic reserves as early as May, according to Kyodo News, as the country braces for potentially prolonged disruptions to energy shipments through the Strait of Hormuz. The move would add to a release of roughly 45 days' worth of stock that began in mid-March, with Japan's oil sector urging the government to continue the drawdown amid concerns that the strait's closure could persist.

The Strait of Hormuz, a narrow waterway between Iran and Oman, is a critical chokepoint for global energy supplies. Japan, which depends on the Middle East for about 95% of its oil, is especially vulnerable: a significant portion of those supplies passes through the strait. The Japanese government has said it believes existing reserves can meet the country's needs at least until the end of this year, but analysts and officials are warning of deeper risks.

Coverage comparison

Reporting on Japan's energy measures has largely coalesced around two themes: the immediate logistical steps Tokyo is taking, and the broader anxiety over what a sustained disruption could mean for the country.

The South China Morning Post focused on the potential consequences of continued instability, highlighting Japan's hope that US-Iran talks will ease tensions and allow the strait to reopen permanently. The report expressed concern that further disruption, combined with an unusually early spell of hot weather, could force the government to implement planned power outages, shorten business hours, and cut some train and flight services.

The TASS report, citing an interview with Tsuneo Watanabe, a senior fellow at the Sasakawa Peace Foundation, took a more cautious tone. Watanabe said the current ceasefire offers only "a small hope" of reopening the strait soon, and predicted that "many realists" in Japan expect it to remain closed for some time. "Japan needs to prepare for a shortage of energy flow from the Gulf states for longer than a year," he told TASS.

Another TASS dispatch, based on Kyodo News, emphasized the mechanics of the release: the plan to release a 20-day stock in May, on top of the 45-day release already underway. The report noted that Japan's oil sector is pressing for continued action because of the uncertainty surrounding the strait.

Key claims

Across the three sources, several key claims emerge, with varying degrees of verification.

Japan's high dependence on Middle East oil is a consistent theme. All three sources agree that Japan relies on the region for approximately 95% of its oil, making the Strait of Hormuz a vital lifeline. This claim is considered highly reliable.

The release of strategic oil reserves is also widely reported. The Japanese government has already begun releasing stock—about 45 days' worth in mid-March—and is now considering an additional 20-day release in May. This is attributed to Kyodo News and corroborated by TASS's own reporting; the claim is considered high-confidence.

The potential for prolonged disruption is a point of disagreement. While the South China Morning Post noted Japan's hope that US-Iran talks will ease tensions, TASS quoted an expert who said the strait may not open soon and that Japan should prepare for supply disruptions lasting over a year. This is a predictive claim carried by a single source and has not yet been independently verified.

Relatedly, the risk of LNG shortages is highlighted by the South China Morning Post, which noted that while Japan has ample crude reserves, its more immediate vulnerability is liquefied natural gas (LNG), used for electricity generation in major cities. LNG is harder to store in large volumes, making disruptions more consequential. This claim is considered high-confidence.

Finally, the possibility of planned power outages is mentioned only by the South China Morning Post as a worst-case scenario, particularly during summer demand peaks. This is a single-source predictive claim and should be treated as speculative.

Perspectives

The situation is viewed through at least three distinct lenses.

Japanese government and industry: Tokyo is taking practical steps to shore up supply, including releasing reserves and exploring alternative sources. The government's calculation is that existing stockpiles can sustain the country until the end of 2025, but industry calls for continued drawdowns reflect concern that the strait's closure could be prolonged.

Analysts and experts: Tsuneo Watanabe of the Sasakawa Peace Foundation represents a more pessimistic view, arguing that the strait is unlikely to reopen soon and that Japan must prepare for a long period of reduced energy flows. He suggests a timeline exceeding a year, which would outlast current reserve estimates.

International observers: The South China Morning Post frames the issue in the context of US-Iran diplomacy, noting Japan's hopes for a deal but also the anxiety about failure. The article emphasizes cascading consequences—from power outages to reduced transport—should disruption combine with high seasonal demand.

As of this writing, no official confirmation from the Japanese government regarding the 20-day release has been reported beyond Kyodo's account. The situation remains fluid, with the Strait of Hormuz's status and the outcome of US-Iran talks as key variables.