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Italy's population to shrink by 4 million by 2050, stats agency says
ISTAT projects Italy's population will fall to 55 million by 2050 from 58.9 million, with a sharp rise in the elderly share and a shrinking workforce. Births hit a record low last year, and the decline will be steepest in southern Italy.
By Tertius News AI Desk2 distinct · 3 mastheads · 3 articlesVersion 1Coverage Published
Population decline forecast
Italy's population is projected to shrink by almost 4 million by 2050, according to the national statistics bureau ISTAT. In new demographic projections released on Monday and extending to 2080, ISTAT said the resident population would fall to 55 million in 2050 from 58.9 million at the start of 2025, before dropping further to 45.8 million by 2080.
ISTAT warned that the decline undermines the sustainability of Italy's economy and welfare system as the proportion of elderly people increases. A shrinking pool of workers and a surging number of pensioners will pose "new challenges to the economic system and welfare," the agency noted.
Births and deaths trends
Births have declined steadily in Italy since 2008 and fell last year to around 355,000, the lowest number since Italy's unification in 1861. ISTAT said annual births would remain broadly stable until 2030, before falling to 335,000 by 2050. As reported by The Times of India, earlier ISTAT data showed Italy's fertility rate had fallen to an average of 1.14 children per woman, well below the replacement rate of 2.1.
Deaths, meanwhile, are projected to rise as Italy's large post-war baby boom generation reaches old age. The number of annual deaths is expected to increase from about 652,000 last year to a peak of 869,000 in 2058.
Ageing and working-age population
The share of Italians aged 65 or over is expected to jump to 34.5% in 2050 from 24.7% in 2025, while the proportion of people of working age, defined as 15 to 64 years old, will fall to 55.3% from 63.4%.
Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni said when she took office in 2022 that boosting the birth rate would be a government priority, but her efforts have produced scant results, as reported by The Straits Times and The Tribune.
Regional disparities
The demographic decline is expected to be uneven across the country. Poorer southern Italy is forecast to suffer the steepest losses, with its population falling from 19.7 million in 2025 to 16.7 million in 2050, while central and northern regions will see a more modest decline.
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Framing: States ISTAT's projection of a population shrink of 4 million by 2050, attributing it to the national statistics bureau
Facts Included:
Italy's population will shrink by almost 4 million by 2050
ISTAT warned on Monday that the decline undermines the sustainability of Italy's economy and welfare system as the proportion of elderly people increases
ISTAT's new demographic projections extend to 2080
Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni said when she took office in 2022 that boosting the birth rate would be a government priority, but her efforts have produced scant results
Births have declined steadily since 2008 and fell last year to around 3,55,000, the lowest number since Italy's unification in 1861, while deaths have risen as the population ages
ISTAT said annual births would now remain broadly stable until 2030, before falling to 3,35,000 by 2050
Deaths were projected to rise from about 6,52,000 last year to a peak of 8,69,000 in 2058 as Italy's large post-war baby boom generation reaches old age
ISTAT noted that a shrinking pool of workers and a surging number of pensioners will pose 'new challenges to the economic system and welfare'
The demographic decline will be uneven across the country
Central and northern regions will see a more modest decline
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Claim
Confidence
Status
ClaimItaly's population will shrink by almost 4 million by 2050.
ClaimISTAT warned on Monday that the population decline undermines the sustainability of Italy's economy and welfare system as the proportion of elderly people increases.
ClaimISTAT said Italy's resident population would fall to 55 million in 2050 from 58.9 million at the start of 2025, before dropping to 45.8 million by 2080.
ClaimDeaths were projected to rise from about 652,000 last year to a peak of 869,000 in 2058 as Italy's large post-war baby boom generation reaches old age.