Israel’s Upcoming Election Season: A Test of Democratic Norms and Political Maneuvering
As Israel stands on the brink of a new election, the country faces not only the usual political battles but also a deeper question about the health of its democratic norms. A May poll conducted by the Jewish People Policy Institute found that while 65% of Israelis overall say they will accept the election results, the ideological breakdown reveals significant polarization. Among right-wing and center-right respondents, nearly half described a potential loss as “regrettable, but life goes on,” while another 30% said they would fully respect the majority’s decision. In stark contrast, 81% of left-wing respondents said an electoral defeat would be “intolerable,” with 62% of the center-left sharing that view.
This divide raises concerns about whether the losing side will accept the outcome and allow the winners to govern, a fundamental tenet of democratic governance. The Jerusalem Post editorial warns that recent history suggests election results no longer signal a new era of cooperation but often become a point of contention.
Coalition and Opposition Dynamics
A separate analysis by Sebastien Levi highlights a notable shift within the Zionist opposition: the refusal to govern with Arab parties. This stance, which unites all major opposition factions except Yair Golan’s left-wing “The Democrats,” marks a departure from the 2021–2022 experience, when governments led by Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid included Arab parties. Bennett, among others, has justified this reversal by citing the October 7 terrorist attack, arguing that the Israeli public’s reluctance to support such an alliance today is understandable.
This ostracism, according to Levi, is both a capitulation to the far Right, which demonizes Israeli Arabs, and a gift to extremists within Israeli Arab society who warn against integration into the political game. The move also complicates coalition building, as excluding Arab parties makes it harder for the opposition to reach the 61-seat majority needed to form a government.
Polls consistently project that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his partners will lose to the opposition, with the outgoing coalition receiving 50-52 seats and the opposition Zionist parties 58-60. However, Netanyahu’s strategy appears focused on preventing the opposition from reaching a majority, thereby allowing him to remain in power as head of a caretaker government, as he did between 2019 and 2021 when four successive elections ended in stalemates.
The Campaign’s Shifting Narratives
Yaakov Katz’s analysis argues that the upcoming campaign is already marked by a fluidity of positions. He predicts that Likud will run advertisements claiming it protected IDF soldiers by refusing to pass the ultra-Orthodox draft law—a law that MK Boaz Bismuth, chairman of the Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee, had previously described as “excellent” and “the smartest and fairest” ever presented. This reversal, Katz notes, illustrates how election season in Israel has become less about genuine substance and more about strategic repositioning.
Katz also recalls past examples: Netanyahu, who once vowed there would never be a Palestinian state, later told international audiences he remained committed to a diplomatic process. Bennett signed a pledge on TV promising not to sit with Yair Lapid or an Arab party, only to build exactly such a coalition after the election. While breaking promises has always been part of Israeli politics, Katz argues this election feels different—it is a volatile mixture of the good, the bad, and the ugly.
The good, he says, is that Israel is finally heading to elections, offering the public a chance to choose its leaders. But the campaign is likely to be dominated by manipulation and distortion, with social media and AI-generated videos playing a significant role in shaping public perception.
For Netanyahu, this election may be about survival. If he wins, it could be interpreted as public vindication, potentially leading to a pardon and an end to his corruption trial. But the broader question remains whether the country can emerge from this campaign with its democratic institutions intact and its citizens willing to accept the verdict of the ballot box.