Analysis: Israel's restraint in Gaza may hand Hamas a path back to power
The Israeli military has scored significant gains in Gaza, but a recent shift toward restraint may give Hamas the opening it needs to reclaim power, an analysis has found.
The Jerusalem Post reported that the IDF currently controls between 65% and roughly 70% of the Gaza Strip, crediting a 'well-oiled machine' developed over the past year for locating and destroying terrorist infrastructure both above and below ground.
Central to this effort, according to the report, has been Southern Command chief Maj.-Gen. Yaniv Asor, who is a candidate for deputy IDF chief of staff. Asor has advanced a policy of thwarting terrorism through airstrikes, targeting those involved in the October 7 attack and those now working to rebuild Hamas's military wing. These operations, as described in the report, combine precise intelligence from the Shin Bet and the IDF Intelligence Directorate, with aerial firepower. The report quotes a senior officer telling Walla that the approach relies on 'high-quality intelligence and the exploitation of operational opportunities.'
However, the report suggests that in recent weeks, pressure from new Hamas leader Khalil al-Hayya, alongside Qatar, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and the UAE, on the US has changed Israel's approach.
According to the report, the Israeli government has decided to halt targeted killings in Gaza completely, without presenting an alternative framework. It also approved the entry of around 200 members of a multinational force into the Strip, despite the fact that Hamas has not yet disarmed. The report notes that a Nukhba operative involved in the October 7 attack was recently arrested near the Kerem Shalom crossing without prior authorization, suggesting a lack of coordination in this new policy environment.
A dangerous trajectory
The report raises concerns that this approach is dangerous and could lead to negative developments, as Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's government faces criticism for preventing the Palestinian Authority from playing a role in Gaza while pursuing a policy that could destabilize the region further. The analysis notes that US President Donald Trump's special envoy, Nikolay Mladenov, and the technocratic government are rushing to rehabilitate the southern Gaza Strip, actions that the report suggests may be premature given the security situation.
The report criticizes the lack of a clear strategy, describing the government's policy as 'destabilizing pragmatism' in its potential to undermine the military's gains and embolden Hamas.