Israel’s De Facto Control in Gaza, Lebanon, and Syria Exceeds Declared Boundaries, Investigation Finds

Lead

More than a year after the October 2025 ceasefire, Israeli forces have not fully withdrawn from Gaza as agreed, and satellite imagery suggests they are instead solidifying a permanent military presence. According to an investigation by Al Jazeera’s Open Source Unit, Israeli troops have established at least 40 distinct military outposts within the enclave, with eight of these bases constructed entirely after the truce took effect. The findings, based on satellite data analyzed up to May 2026, indicate that the Israeli military’s actual control on the ground extends beyond the boundaries it has officially declared.

Coverage Comparison

The investigation, which has been covered extensively by Al Jazeera across multiple reports, compares official Israeli military maps with satellite imagery, geographic information system (GIS) data, and statistics from the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED). The probe focuses on three areas: the Gaza Strip, southern Lebanon, and southern Syria. In each case, the investigation found a persistent gap between declared lines and actual military operations.

Key Claims

The key findings of the investigation include:

• Gaza: Israeli forces have pulled back to what is known as the "Yellow Line," which covers roughly 60 percent of Gaza's territory. However, the investigation found that physical markers were routinely pushed beyond these limits, with expansions in northern Gaza and demolitions occurring outside declared military zones, such as in the Shujayea neighborhood.
• New Outposts: Eight of the 40 military bases in Gaza were built from scratch after the October 2025 ceasefire, with one site still under active construction as of May 2026. These installations are strategically dispersed across northern Gaza, the central region, east of the Netzarim Corridor, and in the southern city of Khan Younis. In one notable case, a base was constructed atop the ruins of the Eastern Cemetery in Khan Younis.
• Lebanon: Demolition operations have also been reported outside the declared military zone in southern Lebanon, though details remain limited.
• Syria: The investigation estimates that Israeli forces control approximately 235 square kilometers in southern Syria, with over 800 incursions into Syrian territory documented between December 2024 and January 2026.
• Total Area: The combined de facto military control across these three areas is estimated at approximately 1,000 square kilometers—an area larger than New York City and roughly five percent of Israel's territory before October 2023.
• Casualties: The Palestinian death toll continues to rise, with nearly 73,000 people killed and over 172,919 injured since the war began in October 2023, according to figures cited in the investigation.

Perspectives

Analysts quoted by Al Jazeera describe Israel's expansion as a policy of "strategic deception" and "geographic engineering." They argue that the territorial gains mask Israel's inability to achieve its stated war objectives, while appeasing right-wing ideological demands and creating new realities on the ground that may be difficult to reverse.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has publicly embraced the expansion. At a recent conference, he confirmed directives to permanently seize the "vast majority" of Gaza, stating, "We are currently squeezing Hamas; we now control 60 percent of the territory." When a crowd member shouted for complete annexation, Netanyahu responded, "Let's go step by step. First of all, 70. Let's start with that."

Critics, including analysts and human rights groups, argue that these actions violate ceasefire agreements and international law. They point to the construction of new military infrastructure, the displacement of civilian populations, and the lack of international accountability.

Temporal Context

The investigation notes that Israel's military control maps have evolved since October 7, 2023, with each ceasefire agreement producing a new map. The "Yellow Line" in Gaza was introduced after the October 2025 ceasefire, but the investigation found that ground operations have exceeded these limits. In southern Syria, where no official Israeli map exists, the investigation relied on fixed military outposts beyond the "Alpha Line" separating the occupied Golan Heights from the rest of Syria.

The probe's findings cover the period up to May 2026, and it remains to be seen whether these developments will influence ongoing diplomatic efforts or lead to increased international scrutiny.