A standoff of competing limits
The United States and Iran are each asserting control over the Strait of Hormuz, but the reality on the water is a stalemate shaped by the limits of both sides. Washington cannot fully reopen the strait, and Tehran cannot stop every ship from transiting the narrow waterway, according to a report from Fortune. The result has been an uneasy equilibrium: oil prices stay choppy but relatively contained, missiles are still launched, and full all-out war has not returned. That equilibrium, however, is not likely to last, the report cautioned.
Shipping traffic through the strait remains severely restricted. Vessel crossings often barely reach double digits, a tiny fraction of the roughly 130 daily transits before the war, as reported by CNN. For crude oil-laden tankers specifically, only about two to three Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCCs) have transited daily since July 7, according to Kpler, a ship-tracking firm, compared with roughly eight before the war.
Oil still moving, but at a fraction of prewar levels
Despite the restrictions, significant volumes of oil are still getting through. Many tankers are attempting "dark" transits, switching off their Automatic Identification Systems (AIS) to avoid detection, and using ship-to-ship transfers, according to ship-tracking services and analysts quoted by CNN. This covert traffic contradicts Iran's claims of a complete closure, as Fortune noted.
The Trump administration has claimed that 8–9 million barrels a day are getting out of the Gulf, while analysts put the figure closer to 7 million, according to Fortune. Before the war, oil exports from the region were about 20 million barrels per day. Oil flowing through the strait plus pipeline exports adds up to roughly half that prewar level, buying global energy markets more time, the report said.
Kpler estimates that 72 of 84 crude oil-laden tankers (86%) that transited the strait since July 7 used a UN-authorized route through Omani waters, though the firm said it could not be certain, as reported by CNN.
The amount of oil coming out of the Persian Gulf is poised to jump soon, according to Fortune. Export powerhouse Saudi Arabia appears ready to join its neighbors in shuttle service, with satellite images showing the kingdom's ships on both sides of the strait positioning for that role.
Iran's economy squeezed, but regime unbowed
The US naval blockade that President Donald Trump reimposed is cutting off Iran's oil exports and the revenue they generate, according to Fortune. Officials and business leaders in Tehran are increasingly warning the blockade will crush the economy, the report said. The International Monetary Fund expects Iran's economy to shrink by more than 5% this year, the worst contraction in almost four decades, with inflation near 80% and the rial at record lows, as reported by CNN.
Yet Iran is showing no signs of backing down. No widespread demonstrations against the regime have occurred despite the economic hardship, and Iran appears emboldened by the war, CNN reported. US Energy Secretary Chris Wright acknowledged Iran had "built up a giant arsenal" and was "causing difficulties," but argued its ability to do so was declining, CNN reported.
Majidreza Hariri, head of the Iran-China Joint Chamber of Commerce, admitted the blockade will inflict more economic damage than war and urged Iran to end it "whether through negotiation, supplication, threats, or even war," as Fortune reported.
Analysts see a contest of endurance
Experts quoted by CNN and Fortune describe the standoff as a test of which side can absorb more pain. Jorge Leon, head of geopolitical analysis at Rystad, an energy consultancy, told CNN: "It's now a matter of who blinks first, if anyone. There's this dichotomy… economic pain is higher for Iran than for the US at the moment, but, importantly, political pressure on Iran is much lower."
Gregory Brew of Eurasia Group said Iran's leadership is prepared to absorb a lot more economic pain, having absorbed years of US sanctions and a long war without backing down, as reported by CNN. Fortune quoted experts cautioning that Iran's repressive regime is unlikely to be swayed by the suffering of ordinary citizens and can wait out economic hardship longer than the US public can endure high gas prices.
Eric Brewer, a former US intelligence official, told the Wall Street Journal that "Iran has proven to have a higher pain tolerance than the United States," as reported by Fortune.
Dan Alamariu of Alpine Macro noted, "American voters don't like presidents that lose wars," and said barrels getting through Hormuz raise the odds of a longer war, possibly deep into 2027, as reported by CNN.
US vulnerabilities and Iranian military buildup
The US effort is complicated by its own constraints. The military's interceptor stockpile is low, reportedly factoring into Trump's decision to call off a major re-escalation, according to Fortune. The USS Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier is struggling with mental health and supply issues amid a record-long time at sea, with another carrier on the way, the report said.
Iran, meanwhile, has reorganized its military to be more aggressive and developed new missiles better at evading air defenses, making US assets and allied oil infrastructure more vulnerable, Fortune reported. Dimitris Maniatis of Marisks said Iran exerts near-full control of the Strait of Hormuz, enforced through the threat of attack, as reported by CNN.
The stakes for Washington and global markets
US gasoline prices are above $4 a gallon on average, testing Trump's popularity ahead of midterm elections in November, CNN reported. Wright said as many as 15 million barrels of oil flow out of the Gulf daily, including via the strait and pipelines, compared with 20 million before the war, CNN reported.
Iran has roughly 80 million barrels of oil on water outside the US blockade, mostly committed to China, earning about $1.5 billion a month—about four months' worth of export revenues at current discharge rates, according to Kpler's Homayoun Falakshahi, as reported by CNN. The US is tightening the blockade, with loadings onto Iranian tankers falling to a fraction of levels seen between February and April, per Kpler, CNN reported.
As both sides continue to test each other's resolve, analysts see no easy end to the standoff. "It's now a matter of who blinks first, if anyone," Leon said.