Iran's military 'totally destroyed' with around 21% missile capacity remaining, Trump claims

Trump Claims Iran Left With '21, 22%' of Missile Capacity

US President Donald Trump said Iran has roughly 21-22% of its missiles remaining after nearly 40 days of US-Israeli strikes, claiming that the country's military has been "totally destroyed." The remarks, made in an interview with NBC News on June 5, contradict intelligence assessments from Western allies cited by the South China Morning Post, which indicate Iran has reconstituted about three-quarters of its pre-war missile inventory during the eight-week ceasefire.

The discrepancy between Trump's public assertion and the allied intelligence estimates has renewed scrutiny of the administration's public assessment of the military campaign. Trump told NBC's Kristen Welker that he knows "almost to the number" how many missiles and drones Iran retains, placing the figure at 21-22% of its pre-war capacity. This is higher than his previous estimate of 60% destruction of Iran's missile inventory in May.

Key Claims

• Trump's claim about Iran's remaining missile capacity: In a June 6 interview with NBC News, Trump said Iran still has about 21-22% of its missiles. He previously stated the figure at 18%, according to the Jerusalem Post's reporting.
• Western intelligence estimates suggest a higher remaining arsenal.
• The framework deal excludes Iran's missile programme from future negotiations.
• Iran continued launching missiles and drones during the conflict despite the ceasefire.

Conflicting Assessments of Iran's Arsenal

The South China Morning Post reports that Western allies believe Iran has added Russian weapons to its inventory and rebuilt large portions of its missile arsenal during the ceasefire. Intelligence estimates suggest Tehran retains roughly three-quarters of its pre-war missile inventory, a figure that stands in stark contrast to Trump's public assertions.

Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baqaei said in an interview with Iranian state television that Iranian missiles are "only for firing, not for negotiations," rejecting any possibility that the missile programme could be discussed. "Iran's defence capability will not be discussed in any way, in any process or with any party," he said.

A framework deal agreed between Washington and Tehran lays the groundwork for detailed negotiations on Iran's nuclear programme and sanctions relief, but contains no mention of the missile programme, according to the source material.

Trump appeared to soften his position on Iran's missiles on Tuesday, suggesting it would be "unfair" for Iran not to have any missiles when other countries possess them. "I'm saying that if other countries have them, it's a little bit unfair for them not to have some," Trump said.

The US military denied an Iranian claim that its forces had fired warning shots at American destroyers, according to the reporting.

During the nearly 40-day war, Iran's missile infrastructure came under heavy US-Israeli bombardment, but Tehran continued to respond with missile and drone attacks across the region. Western allies believe Iran has added unspecified Russian missiles to its inventory and rebuilt large portions of its arsenal during the ceasefire.

Before the war, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio had warned that Iran would need to negotiate over its ballistic missile arsenal, which Washington views as a threat to Israel and US military bases in the region. Iran has repeatedly refused to discuss what it describes as its defensive capabilities.

The Jerusalem Post reported that Israel went to war in February to eliminate the threat posed by Iran's ballistic missile programme, with Iran having possessed an estimated 2,500-3,000 missiles before the conflict.

Coverage Analysis

The reporting on Iran's missile capability comes from three outlets with different editorial perspectives. Jerusalem Post coverage focuses on Trump's claims and their security implications, noting the president said he knows "almost to the number" how many missiles remain. The South China Morning Post offers a more analytical perspective, emphasising the intelligence gap between Western estimates and Trump's public statements.

All three outlets report the framework deal does not include Iran's missile programme, despite Washington's longstanding concerns. The agreement instead focuses on nuclear negotiations and sanctions relief for Tehran.

The conflicting assessments of Iran's remaining missile capacity — Trump's figure of approximately 21% versus allied intelligence estimates of roughly 75% — underscore the difficulty of verifying military claims in an ongoing conflict. The South China Morning Post's reporting suggests Western intelligence believes Iran has used the ceasefire to reconstitute its arsenal, potentially with Russian assistance.

Key Claims

• Trump reportedly said Iran's military has been "totally destroyed" and retains approximately 21-22% of its missile capacity, a figure the president said he knows "almost to the number."
• Western allied intelligence estimates suggest Iran has about three-quarters of its pre-war missile inventory, according to the South China Morning Post.
• Iran has added new Russian weapons to its inventory and rebuilt large parts of its missile arsenal during the ceasefire, according to Western allies.
• A framework agreement between Washington and Tehran lays the groundwork for nuclear negotiations and sanctions relief but does not address Iran's missile programme.
• Iran's foreign ministry spokesperson said missiles are "only for firing, not for negotiations."
• Trump said it would be "unfair" for Iran not to possess missiles when other countries have them.
• Iran continued launching missile and drone attacks across the region during the nearly 40-day war.
• The war began after years of Iran maintaining a ballistic missile arsenal of roughly 2,500-3,000 missiles, which Israel viewed as an existential threat, according to the Jerusalem Post.
• Iran fired dozens of missiles toward regional neighbours despite the ceasefire, according to a claim in the reporting.
• The US military denied Iran's claim of firing warning shots at American destroyers.