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Israel is closely watching for an Iranian response after the US military launched an operation against Tehran, with the defense establishment assessing that a rapid escalation is possible. As reported by the Jerusalem Post, the situation is considered "fragile and explosive," and American forces have maintained their pre-ceasefire formation, allowing a transition "from zero to one hundred." Meanwhile, Iran continues to press to include Hezbollah in the agreement, according to the same report.

Coverage comparison

The Jerusalem Post's coverage spans two distinct analyses. One piece, published on July 1, 2026, focuses on Israel-US relations and the differing threat perceptions regarding Iran. It quotes Defense Ministry Director-General Maj.-Gen. (res.) Amir Baram, who spoke at the Herzliya Conference, emphasizing that while both countries view Iran as a threat, their priorities differ. The other article, dated July 9, 2026, provides a more immediate operational assessment, describing the US military operation and Israel's preparedness for potential renewed fighting.

The earlier analysis highlights a fundamental divergence in strategic outlook: Israel perceives Iran as an existential threat, while the US treats it as a chronic regional challenge, with its primary focus on the Indo-Pacific theater and China. The later piece focuses on the tactical situation on the ground, including the status of US forces and Israeli assessments of Iranian intentions.

Across both reports, a consistent theme emerges: Israel is bracing for the possibility of escalation while simultaneously believing that Iran may not seek a return to full-scale conflict.

Key claims

  • US military operation and escalation risk: The Jerusalem Post reported that the US military launched an operation against Tehran. A security source told Walla that American forces had not reduced their presence beforehand, remaining in the same formation as before the ceasefire, which permits a rapid transition to full fighting capabilities.
  • US agreement declared over: US President Donald Trump declared that the agreement with Iran is over, as reported by the Jerusalem Post. This statement comes in the wake of the military operation.
  • Hezbollah in the agreement: Iran continues to press for the inclusion of Hezbollah in the agreement, according to the Jerusalem Post, noting that dozens of the organization's "terrorists" remain in tunnels in southern Lebanon.
  • US forces in Israel until 2027: The Jerusalem Post reported that, according to agreements with local suppliers mediated by the Defense Ministry and the IDF, US forces will remain in Israel at least until the beginning of 2027.
  • Iranian intentions: The defense establishment assessed that the Iranians do not intend to return to fighting but rather seek to maximize the negotiation process with the Americans and "drag out" time, as stated in the Jerusalem Post article.
  • Differing threat perceptions: Defense Ministry Director-General Maj.-Gen. (res.) Amir Baram was quoted as saying, "The difference between us is not in how we understand the threat, but in our priorities: for us, Iran is an existential threat; for the United States, it is a chronic regional challenge, while China and the Indo-Pacific theater remain the core concern. We think Tehran, they think Taiwan." He added that what some in Israel perceive as "weakness or folly" is viewed in Washington as "cold, calculated, and clear-eyed risk management."
  • Pentagon's perspective: Baram explained that from the Pentagon's perspective, with American munitions stretched between supporting current wars and preparing for a potential confrontation in the Taiwan Strait, a prolonged war in the Middle East runs counter to America's global posture.
  • Upcoming MoU: The Jerusalem Post reported that an upcoming Memorandum of Understanding will govern the Israeli-US military relationship for a decade after 2028.

Perspectives

Defense Ministry Director-General Maj.-Gen. (res.) Amir Baram: Baram articulated Israel's position that Iran is an existential threat, while acknowledging that the US views it differently. He framed American policy as rational risk management, not weakness, and stressed that Israel cannot judge US policy through a "provincial lens." He also noted that Americans may be driven by a reluctance to lose a campaign they have already won.

US Administration (as interpreted by Israeli officials): While not directly quoted, the US administration's perspective is characterized as viewing Iran as a "chronic regional challenge," with a primary focus on the Indo-Pacific and China. The reports suggest the US seeks to avoid a prolonged Middle East war that would strain its global military posture, particularly regarding potential confrontation in the Taiwan Strait.