Iran War at Six Months: Economic Winners and Losers

Introduction

Six months into the Iran war, the global economy has weathered the storm better than many feared, yet the conflict has left deep scars on energy markets and supply chains. While US oil giants have posted their biggest profits since 2022, they face mounting risks to their Gulf investments. Meanwhile, financial markets have recovered strongly, but consumers and farmers continue to grapple with higher costs.

Oil Prices and the Strait of Hormuz

Brent crude has risen about 22 percent since the war began on February 28, climbing from $72 to $88 a barrel, according to Al Jazeera. The Times of India reports that prices spiked to nearly $120 at their peak before easing, but remain about 20 percent above pre-war levels. The Strait of Hormuz, through which a fifth of the world's oil and gas once flowed, remains largely closed to commercial traffic, though Iran and Oman agreed on a temporary maritime route. Iran insists the strait will not fully reopen until the United States fulfills commitments under a lapsed interim peace deal.

US Oil Companies: Windfall and Risk

Chevron reported its highest quarterly profit in six years, with $12 billion in adjusted earnings on July 31, according to Al Jazeera. ExxonMobil, however, saw upstream earnings drop by around $3 billion in the first half of 2026 compared to the same period in 2025, due to lower volumes from the Middle East, though higher commodity prices covered the shortfall. The war has exposed the industry's vulnerability, with energy infrastructure accounting for nearly half (48 percent) of all strikes on nonmilitary targets across the six GCC countries, according to ACLED data cited by Al Jazeera.

Rahul Choudhary, vice president of Upstream Research at Rystad Energy, told Al Jazeera that US companies' share of gas supplies from the region could fall by around 40 percent this year, and oil supplies by 30-35 percent. "Overall we expect US companies' share of gas supplies [from the region] to fall by around 40 percent this year compared to last year [and] the share of oil supplies to drop by 30-35 percent," he said.

Attacks on Energy Infrastructure

Iran and Iran-backed groups have carried out at least 172 attacks on nonmilitary infrastructure across the six GCC countries since the war began, according to ACLED. The UAE, Kuwait and Bahrain have suffered the highest number of successful strikes. Struck sites include Kuwait's Mina Abdullah and Mina al-Ahmadi refineries, the Bahrain Petroleum Company refinery, ADNOC's al-Ruwais Industrial City and Habshan gas complex, and Saudi Aramco's Abqaiq processing complex. A drone strike on July 27 hit the Abqaiq complex, and a drone attack in March near the SAMREF refinery in Yanbu disrupted oil loading. Qatar's Ras Laffan Industrial City came under repeated attack in March, at one point halting production entirely. In June, an explosion on Qatar's Barzan gas project, where ExxonMobil holds a stake, killed at least 13 people.

Nasser Khdour of ACLED said oil and gas facilities, power plants and water desalination plants are likely to remain key targets, as reported by Al Jazeera.

Company-Specific Impacts

ExxonMobil, with stakes in QatarEnergy LNG joint ventures and the UAE's Upper Zakum offshore oilfield, has been more exposed. The company's share of LNG supply from Qatar is expected to fall to about four million tonnes this year from 13 million tonnes last year. Damage to LNG trains at Ras Laffan could take years to repair, according to QatarEnergy. The attack on trains 4 and 6 damaged roughly 13 million tonnes of capacity, with repair costs estimated at around $3 billion. Upper Zakum production was reduced between March and May when export routes were disrupted.

Chevron, which operates oil assets in the Saudi-Kuwait Partitioned Zone and explores routes to move Iraqi crude to Mediterranean terminals, has limited exposure, with the Gulf region accounting for just 5 percent of its total global output. Occidental Petroleum, with a 40-percent stake in the UAE's Shah gas project and operations in Oman, saw its project hit by drone attacks in March. ConocoPhillips remains exposed through investments in higher-risk markets, including a planned 42-percent stake in BP's Kirkuk operations in Iraq. Choudhary noted that companies like Chevron and Occidental, with presence in less volatile countries like Israel and Oman, will not see severe impacts.

Expert analysis from Rystad Energy suggests that ExxonMobil's $10 billion Upper Zakum and Qatar LNG expansions could face delays. Chinmayi Teggi of Rystad Energy said second-quarter Middle East revenues for the Big Three oilfield service companies (SLB, Halliburton and Baker Hughes) were down 8-10 percent compared with the previous year.

Global Markets and the AI Offset

The Times of India reports that global stock markets have recovered sharply from the initial shock of the war. From their late-March lows, the Dow has gained nearly 19 percent, the S&P 500 almost 22 percent, and the Nasdaq about 27 percent, helped by optimism around artificial intelligence. The International Monetary Fund said in July that the war was weighing on growth while AI enthusiasm provided an offset.

Broader Economic Pressures

The conflict has driven up costs across the board. Fertilizer prices peaked in April at 44 percent above pre-war levels, according to the World Bank. The International Air Transport Association expects jet fuel prices to average 70 percent higher in 2026 than in 2025. The UN World Food Programme warned that higher food and transport costs could push millions more towards hunger. Brett House, an economist at Columbia, said fuel surcharges are unlikely to be rolled back. Carl Skau, the WFP's acting executive, described the human toll: "An oil tanker in the Strait of Hormuz can mean one less meal a day for a child in Sudan."

The crisis has also accelerated interest in alternatives to fossil fuels. EV sales rose 110 percent in Singapore, 180 percent in New Zealand, and 300 percent in Colombia, according to The Times of India. The International Energy Agency expects EVs to account for 29 percent of global vehicle sales in 2026, up from 25 percent in 2025.

War Economy: Defense Contracts and White House Response

Military contractors have benefited from the conflict. Powerus, a company involving Eric Trump and Donald Trump , secured a US Air Force contract worth up to $90 million for interceptors for Iranian drones. Anduril received US approval for up to $2 billion in drone-interceptor sales to Kuwait. SpaceX is providing satellite services to support US drone operations against Iran, and Firehawk Defense secured Pentagon contracts for propellants and warheads. The White House said there are no conflicts of interest.

Outlook

US President Donald Trump has warned Iran against restricting access to the Strait of Hormuz, but the immediate outlook remains uncertain. The temporary maritime route agreed between Iran and Oman offers limited relief, and Iran's insistence on US commitments under the lapsed interim peace deal leaves the long-term status of the strait unresolved. As Rystad's Choudhary noted, prolonged disruption is likely to delay major projects and weigh on the future growth plans of US oil and gas companies with a presence in the region.