Lead

Former senior Israeli security official Avner Vilan said Iran believes it is in a position of strategic advantage because the United States is seeking to avoid a broader conflict. In an interview with 103FM on Monday, Vilan said Tehran's control of the Strait of Hormuz and its ability to survive heavy damage would allow it to continue pressuring the region even after US strikes.

Coverage comparison

Vilan's comments were reported by the Jerusalem Post, drawing on his interview with Israeli radio station 103FM. In one interview segment, he addressed Iran's sense of victory; in another, he discussed the fragile status quo between the US and Iran and the potential consequences for Israel if renewed strikes fail.

Key claims

Vilan said that "the Iranians have a sense of victory" because "they control the Strait of Hormuz, and nobody has done anything to them. Their strategy is working." He added that Tehran believes President Donald Trump is reluctant to become entangled in another large-scale war, so Iran is "playing this game of chicken and are prepared to take risks."

He said Iran's challenge is not only absorbing damage but also surviving residual damage. "The Iranians are preparing themselves for a situation in which, even if they lose infrastructure and their economy is badly damaged, the regime itself survives," he said, adding that Iran would continue to "project power, perhaps not on the same scale, but it will continue to harass the entire region and strike significant civilian infrastructure."

On the state of US-Iran relations, Vilan said the two sides are locked in a fragile status quo between a new agreement and a return to full-scale war. "Neither side is satisfied with the current situation, but neither is in a hurry to change it," he said. He described the situation since the end of Operation Roaring Lion as "neither here nor there, a kind of status quo involving a new balance of neither peace nor war," adding that it may be better than alternatives.

Vilan argued that Iran does not want to reach an agreement and is not prepared to relinquish what it has achieved in the Strait of Hormuz, and therefore would prefer war to going backward. He also said the US administration's room to maneuver has narrowed, and Washington has already gone a significant distance in its efforts to reach an understanding and now expects concessions from Tehran.

He noted that a shortage of interceptor missiles is one of the considerations that prevented the US from launching a major attack on Iran, though he did not elaborate further.

Regarding the possibility of renewed US strikes, Vilan said that if Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu tries to persuade Trump to attack again during his upcoming visit, Israel could face blame if the attack fails. "If he succeeds in persuading Trump to attack again, and the attack succeeds, I take my hat off to him," Vilan said. "But if it does not succeed, the US will blame us even more for dragging it into a war that damaged its international standing and drove up fuel prices."

He referenced the Wall Street Journal's criticism of Trump's decision to halt military escalation in the Persian Gulf, which referred to vague statements about an emerging agreement. He also mentioned that Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman reportedly urged Trump to back away from further escalation out of concern that the kingdom's oil facilities could become targets of attacks by Iran and the Iran-backed Houthis.