Escalation in the Strait of Hormuz
Iran attacked US military targets in the Middle East on Monday, retaliating for the first American strikes on its territory in a month. Tehran's Revolutionary Guards said they responded to Sunday's attack by striking two US military air bases with ballistic missiles in Jordan, causing "heavy damage." Jordan's army said it had intercepted eight missiles, without stating their origin. Tehran also said it targeted US military personnel at an air base in the United Arab Emirates and shot down a US drone over the Strait of Hormuz.
The attacks came after the United States said it had struck Iranian rocket launchers on a small island in the strategic shipping lane. Washington said its attacks were aimed at preventing Iran from placing more sea mines in the strait, days after it announced it had completed clearing explosives from the waterway. "US forces took limited, precise action against IRGC minelaying forces posing an imminent threat in the Strait of Hormuz," US Central Command wrote on X. The Guards said the US strikes resulted in "casualties" and that their subsequent attack on Jordan was "in response to the US-Zionist aerial aggression."
Competing Claims and Official Statements
The United Arab Emirates said it had "dealt with" a drone over its waters but dismissed claims that Al Minhad Air Base had been targeted as "baseless." The Iranian foreign ministry condemned the US attacks on Larak and justified the strikes on Jordan as "legitimate defence."
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said in a statement quoted by state TV: "We are not seeking war, but we will deliver a decisive response to the aggressors." US President Donald Trump posted an AI-generated video clip on his Truth Social platform that he said was Iran's oil hub Kharg Island being "blown to smithereens." Reuters confirmed that the accompanying video clip showing dramatic explosions was most likely synthetically-generated, using software that detects AI-manipulated imagery. It was not clear if the post was a threat or if an attack was taking place; several hours after the post, there was no evidence Kharg had been attacked. Attacking Kharg, which handled 90% of Iran's oil exports before the war, would severely disrupt its energy trade and put huge pressure on its economy.
The Longer Conflict
The exchange of fire came shortly after the US-Iran war hit the six-month mark, at a time when hostilities had been subsiding. In recent weeks, the administration of US President Donald Trump has prioritised "economic warfare" over military strikes on Iran. Iran has effectively blocked the Strait of Hormuz, a strategic sea lane through which one-fifth of the world's oil passed before the United States and Israel triggered hostilities with strikes on Iran on 28 February.
Navy Captain Tim Hawkins, a spokesman for US Central Command, said: "Last week, CENTCOM completed clearing sea mines from the strait's international shipping routes." He added: "US forces are monitoring the area closely and remain prepared to protect the free flow of commerce through this essential waterway."
Diplomatic efforts, spearheaded by mediators including Pakistan and Qatar, have tried for months to bring an end to the war. While a ceasefire was agreed in April and a memorandum of understanding towards a final peace deal was signed in June, no agreement has been forthcoming, and Washington has since declared "economic warfare" against Tehran. A US naval counterblockade of Iranian ports is squeezing petrol supplies in Iran during a shortfall in domestic production.
The April ceasefire put an end to the most intense fighting, but sporadic attacks, mainly around the Strait of Hormuz, have dimmed the prospects of a final peace agreement. The last US strike on Iran before Sunday came on 29 July in response to "an attempted surprise attack on US forces" in the region, the US military said. Earlier in July, CENTCOM attacked Iran for 13 consecutive nights.
Throughout the war, Iran has fought back by striking US facilities and allies in the Gulf region, hitting targets in Kuwait, Oman, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, among others. Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz has caused pain around the world in the form of price hikes and shortages of fertiliser and energy. Both main crude oil contracts rose at least two percent on Monday. Oil prices rose after news of the US strikes on Iran, with a barrel of North Sea Brent crude climbing back above the symbolic $90 threshold and West Texas Intermediate rising to more than $85.
Domestic Pressures
The Iran war is deeply unpopular with the US public, with midterm elections looming in November that could overturn Republican control of Congress. US Senator Jack Reed criticised Trump over the war, saying: "Six months later, not a single objective has been achieved." Senator Reed also said: "Indeed, he has weakened our position in the Middle East and the world significantly."