Iran: Is Reza Pahlavi's political star fading?

Lead

As the US and Israel went to war with Iran this year, a transformative moment seemed to have arrived for Iranian Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi, son of the autocratic shah overthrown in 1979. Having spent nearly half a century in exile, Pahlavi had been actively campaigning in the US and Europe, delivering speeches about a bright future for his homeland, raising funds, and meeting elected officials. Yet, months later, his candidacy has sputtered, and doubts about his influence and credibility have mounted among Western policymakers and Iranians alike, according to reports from Deutsche Welle and the Jerusalem Post.

Coverage Comparison

Deutsche Welle's analysis focuses on Western governments' skepticism about Pahlavi's viability as a leader, citing experts who argue he has failed to demonstrate the political skills necessary for his ambitions. The outlet highlights Pahlavi's simplistic assumptions and strategic mistakes as contributing to his declining influence. In contrast, the Jerusalem Post's reporting delves into Pahlavi's background, the expectations of his financial backers, and incidents of violence and harassment by some supporters, framing his struggles as rooted in his own actions and decisions. Both outlets agree that Pahlavi's popularity inside Iran is difficult to measure reliably, given the country's volatile society and repression.

Key Claims

Pahlavi, who has repeatedly declared his readiness to lead Iran through a transitional period, saw the war—which began in late February—as a pivotal moment. Shortly after the conflict started, he wrote on X/Twitter: "The Iranian people have called on me to lead the transition after the regime is gone. I have accepted that responsibility." His appearance at the Conservative Political Action Conference in Texas in March drew a 45-second standing ovation from supporters, many draped in the pre-revolution Iranian flag that flew during his father's reign.

However, according to a Reuters investigation cited by both outlets, Pahlavi's candidacy has since sputtered. Senior US officials have publicly distanced themselves from a US-backed effort to bring him to power, and critics accuse him of relying too heavily on foreign military intervention while failing to build a lasting political coalition. Reuters reported that Pahlavi received a $3 million donation from a group of Iranian-American business people who hoped he could lead a transitional government. When President Donald Trump declared on social media, "We are blasting Iran into oblivion or, as they say, back to the Stone Ages!!!"—four days after Pahlavi's CPAC appearance—some of these donors were shocked that Pahlavi did not swiftly condemn the remarks.

Pahlavi's rhetoric has shifted in response to the war's failure to collapse the Iranian government. Initially welcoming international pressure, he later told Iranians that "the final victory will still be forged by our hands" and that the Iranian people would "finish the job." Critics, as noted by Deutsche Welle, have interpreted this emphasis on the Iranian people's role as a retreat from his earlier messaging about international help.

Experts interviewed by Deutsche Welle argue that Western governments have never regarded Pahlavi as a truly viable option for leading a transitional government. Mojtaba Najafi, a researcher focusing on political and social movements in Iran, contends that Pahlavi lacks the political skills needed for such a role. The Jerusalem Post adds that Pahlavi's association with conservative and right-wing parties in the US and Europe has damaged his position, and that Israel views him as a useful source of pressure on the Islamic Republic rather than a likely leader.

Perspectives

Pahlavi's critics: Both Deutsche Welle and the Jerusalem Post highlight criticism of Pahlavi's strategy, including his reliance on foreign military intervention and failure to build a coalition. Experts like Mojtaba Najafi argue Western governments have never considered him viable, and his rhetoric has been inconsistent.

Pahlavi's supporters: Although not directly quoted in the provided material, supporters' enthusiasm is evident in the standing ovation at CPAC and the significant financial backing from Iranian-American donors, illustrating their hope that he could lead a transitional government.