Lead

Australia’s inflation challenge is far from over, economists warn, with further interest rate hikes remaining on the cards even as headline inflation decelerated in May. The consumer price index rose at an annual pace of 4% in the year to May, down from 4.2% in April, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS). However, the preferred measure of underlying inflation—the trimmed mean—climbed to 3.6% from 3.4%, marking the highest annual pace since the September quarter of 2024.

Coverage Comparison

Reporting on the figures differed in emphasis. ABC Australia focused on the deceleration in headline inflation, noting the Reserve Bank's warning that inflation will trend higher in the coming months due to the global energy shock. The Guardian highlighted the persistence of underlying pressures, quoting economists who warned of potential rate hikes and describing the drop in headline inflation as "unexpected" and partly driven by a plunge in fuel prices.

The Guardian reported that the consensus among experts had been for inflation to accelerate to 4.4%, making the actual result better than expected. Yet the underlying measure's rise suggests the challenge is not over.

Key Claims

  • Headline inflation: Annual inflation dropped to 4% in the year to May, down from 4.2% in April, as reported by both ABC Australia and The Guardian.
  • Fuel prices: A nearly 12% drop in fuel prices in May helped drag down the headline rate, according to The Guardian, which cited ABS data.
  • Underlying inflation: The trimmed mean measure of inflation climbed to 3.6% in the year to May, up from 3.4% in April, as reported by both outlets.
  • Underlying inflation pace: Underlying inflation is now running at its highest annual pace since the September quarter of 2024, according to ABC Australia.
  • Home building costs: Home building costs rose 0.9% in May, the most since late 2022, lifting the annual pace to 5.6%, as reported by The Guardian.
  • Food and drink inflation: Food and drink inflation accelerated to 3.3% in the year to May, from 2.8% in April, including a 4% increase in restaurant meals, according to The Guardian.
  • RBA warning: The Reserve Bank has warned that inflation will trend higher in coming months due to the global energy shock, as reported by ABC Australia.

Perspectives

Treasurer Jim Chalmers (Australian Government): Welcomed the lower headline rate of inflation, saying the numbers were "much better than the market expected" and "much better than forecast," while acknowledging his government was not "complacent" about the risks, as quoted by The Guardian.