India’s monsoon is weakening at a critical point in the season, with the India Meteorological Department (IMD) forecasting below-normal rainfall across the country for at least the next two weeks, through September 2. The all-India rainfall deficit has already reached 14% below the long-period average as of Saturday, and is expected to grow further as the monsoon trough remains pinned near the Himalayan foothills rather than moving into central India.
The prediction, part of IMD’s extended range forecast dated August 20, has raised concerns for the winter crop season, as farmers in several regions have already begun sowing. The trough’s position is the immediate problem. “This will reduce rainfall over the rest of the country as it will be centred only around the Himalayan belt and northeast India,” said Navdeep Dahiya, an independent weather expert, adding that the trough is expected to stay in the foothills for at least a week.
Regional Rainfall and Weather Systems
Despite the overall dry outlook, heavy to very heavy rain is expected along the Himalayan belt and in parts of northeast and east India. Rainfall activity is likely to remain weak over peninsular India during the coming week. IMD has also forecast the formation of a low-pressure area over the north Bay of Bengal near the West Bengal–Bangladesh coast within 24 hours, which is expected to bring heavy to very heavy rain to Odisha and Chhattisgarh until August 26.
The monsoon trough’s failure to dip southward into central India — where it typically drives the heaviest and most agriculturally significant rainfall during August — means the regions that most need rain are the least likely to receive it.
Impact on Crops and Inflation
The below-normal rainfall could affect the winter crop season, as farmers have started sowing in several parts of the country. Garima Jain, chief executive officer of agri business at Torq Commodities India, said, “2026 monsoon has been erratic in crucial rain fed regions of MP, Maharashtra, Karnataka, Rajasthan and Gujarat. We are running a deficit of around 14% and the outlook due to strengthening of El Nino and below par rainfall in balance days of August can increase the monsoon deficit to upwards of 15%. The crops specially tur in pulses, soyabean and maize which are grown in rain fed regions need special attention, monitoring and yield assessment.”
Jain also warned of inflationary pressures: “The erratic monsoon and further shortage can push food inflation higher in the coming days and situation gets accentuated by the global supply chain situation specially non supply of cargoes from Russian Ukraine creating logistics bottlenecks. The good supply chain in light of deteriorating monsoon should be top priority of the govt.”
Forecasts and El Niño
The deficit is distributed unevenly across the country: east and northeast India carry the sharpest shortfall at 26% below the long-period average, the south Peninsula is 23% behind, northwest India stands at 11% below normal, and central India is the closest to par at just 3% below. IMD’s April forecast of 92% of the long-period average was revised to 90% in June.
Skymet Weather has revised its seasonal forecast, now expecting monsoon rainfall at just 85% of the long-period average, down from its own April projection of 94%, with a 70% probability of drought.
Meanwhile, the El Niño weather pattern continues to strengthen. Britain’s Met Office said on Friday the event is on track to become the most powerful in over a century, with sea-surface temperatures in the Pacific expected to exceed 3°C above normal. The UK Met Office’s forecast could push 2027 past 2024 as the hottest year on record globally.