Overview
India is likely to receive below-normal rainfall in September, with the India Meteorological Department (IMD) forecasting rainfall across the country to be at least 9% short of the long-period average of 167.9 mm. The forecast, announced on Monday, comes after India recorded its hottest August since 1901, according to the IMD.
Rainfall and Temperature Forecast for September
In its monthly forecast, the IMD said rainfall across the country in September is expected to be below 91% of the long-period average (LPA). The LPA refers to rainfall recorded over a particular region during a given period, such as a month or season, averaged over a long period, typically 30 to 50 years. For September, the LPA is about 167.9 mm, based on data from 1971 to 2020.
Many parts of the country are expected to remain drier than normal, although parts of northwest, northeast, east, east-central India and isolated areas of southeast peninsular India could receive normal to above-normal rainfall.
September brings in about a fifth of the June-September monsoon rain, less than July's 32% and August's 29%. In recent years, September rainfall has seen a relative uptick. As of August 31, India's cumulative monsoon rainfall was about 14% below normal, with central India in surplus but the northwest, east and northeast, and south peninsula all recording deficits. The shortfall was particularly pronounced in the east and northeast, and in the southern peninsula.
In addition to the rainfall deficit, the IMD expects above-normal maximum temperatures over most of India and above-normal minimum temperatures over most areas in September, adding to the prospect of a warm, relatively dry end to the monsoon. The IMD also expects monthly average maximum temperatures to remain above normal during September.
August 2026: Record Heat and Rainfall Deficit
India's hottest August since 1901 saw the mean temperature reach 28.01 degrees Celsius, compared with the normal mean temperature of 27.34 degrees Celsius. The average minimum temperature in August 2026, at 24.36 degrees Celsius against the normal of 23.68 degrees Celsius, was also the highest since 1901, showing that the month's exceptional warmth was reflected in minimum temperatures as well.
India received 213.3 mm of rain in August, the seventh-lowest since 2001. The month was not uniformly dry, with repeated low-pressure systems bringing heavy rain across the Indo-Gangetic Plains and parts of central and eastern India.
Four low-pressure systems, precursors to cyclonic storms and, in the Indian context, mostly originating in the Bay of Bengal, persisted for a combined 26 days in August. However, their rainfall activity remained largely confined to the Indo-Gangetic plains, leaving other parts of the country with a rainfall deficit.
El Niño Attribution
IMD Director General of Meteorology Mrutyunjay Mohapatra said strong El Niño conditions are currently prevailing over the equatorial Pacific Ocean, with sea surface temperatures remaining above normal across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. "These conditions are expected to strengthen further in the coming months," Mohapatra said, as reported by the Free Press Journal. Moderate to strong El Niño conditions over the equatorial Pacific were also a key reason for the below-normal rainfall recorded in August.