Madagascar's Youth Overthrew a President, but State Capture Remains
Youth-led demonstrations that shook Madagascar in late 2025 began as protests over water and electricity shortages. They quickly evolved into broader demands for political change, ultimately forcing President Andry Rajoelina into exile. The protesters, most of them Gen-Zers born between 1997 and 2012, spoke of dignity, corruption, and a broken social contract.
A military-led transitional government took advantage of the turmoil to seize power. The government, headed by Colonel Michael Randrianirina, committed to holding elections within two years. However, analysts caution that the underlying problem that fueled the uprising—state capture—remains deeply entrenched.
What Is State Capture?
State capture is a harmful form of corruption in which powerful political and business networks reshape laws and institutions to serve their own ends. Originally conceived by economists at the World Bank, the concept focuses on "shaping the rules of the game" rather than simply breaking them—the difference between a pharmaceutical firm using political connections to lower regulatory standards and a patient bribing a nurse for vital treatment.
During protests in countries as diverse as Bangladesh, Serbia, and Madagascar, the language of state capture proved a powerful mobilizing force, bringing new attention to what was once a niche academic term.
Madagascar's Captured State
Madagascar was ranked among the 10 countries at the bottom of the UN Human Development Index in 2025. Access to basic public services is low, holding back the economic prospects of young protesters. According to researchers Ketakandriana Rafitoson and Tom Shipley, whose work appears in a book chapter and co-authored paper published by the GI-ACE research programme at the University of Sussex, the protesters overthrew a captured state.
The country's constitution, enacted amid a political crisis in 2010, grants the presidency extensive powers, including the right to appoint one-third of the members of the Senate. This power was exploited by Rajoelina, according to the researchers. A High Court of Justice created in 2018 to try senior officials has made zero prosecutions despite 37 cases being brought before it. Madagascar is also the world's leading producer of vanilla, while illegal gold exports have been a major source of profits for captor networks.
Street protests against rising living costs and corruption facilitated Rajoelina's entry into power in 2009, illustrating a recurring pattern in the country's politics.
What Happens Next
The transitional military government has promised elections within two years. The Concertation Nationale (national dialogue), scheduled to begin in August 2026 but repeatedly delayed, will be a test of the direction of travel. Constitutional change is expected to be on the table in a process overseen by church groups, though there are concerns about their independence.
A recent survey found that 52% of citizens do not trust the protest movement, underscoring the fragility of the current moment. The main focus of European governments is now the elections timetable.
Political finance, for example, has long been a black hole, which works to the advantage of established powerbrokers. Measures supported by international donors tend to focus on law enforcement efforts—going after the bad guys—rather than systemic reform. Other countries have made progress in tackling corruption in critical development sectors, like health, but Madagascar's trajectory remains uncertain.
The months leading up to elections in late 2027 will determine whether the opening created by the protests leads to meaningful and lasting reform, or whether the new government merely reshuffles the same elite networks that have long captured the state.