The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has issued a forecast indicating that Telangana is likely to receive below-normal rainfall in September, as the southwest monsoon enters its final phase. The outlook, released by the Meteorological Centre in Hyderabad, suggests that most parts of the state could experience a rainfall deficit during the month.
The IMD's assessment, based on probabilistic climate models and tercile probability maps, points to a higher likelihood of rainfall remaining below the Long Period Average (LPA) across Telangana. Large parts of the state have been placed in zones showing a strong probability of deficient rainfall.
This regional forecast aligns with the broader national outlook, which expects September rainfall across India to be below normal, at less than 91% of the long-period average. While parts of the Himalayan region, northeastern India, and southern peninsular India may receive above-normal rainfall, much of the country is expected to see subdued monsoon activity.
Meteorologists attribute the expected decline largely to strengthening El Niño conditions over the equatorial Pacific Ocean. According to GNRS Srinivas Rao of the IMD, sea surface temperatures across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific remain above normal, indicating a strong El Niño event that is likely to persist and possibly intensify in the coming months. El Niño is generally associated with weakened monsoon circulation over the Indian subcontinent and can result in reduced rainfall during the latter part of the southwest monsoon season.
August was warmest on record
August 2025 was India's warmest August since 1901, with a mean temperature of 28.010°C, according to IMD data. Despite heavy rains in some regions, the country witnessed over a 16% national deficit in rainfall during the month.
IMD chief Mrutyunjay Mohapatra said many parts of India are likely to receive below-normal rainfall in September. However, northwest, northeast, east, east-central and southeast peninsular India may see normal to above-normal precipitation.
The IMD has observed "strong El Niño conditions" over the equatorial Pacific Ocean, which could further weaken India's monsoon. This is particularly concerning for farmers, as a dry September may increase irrigation costs and affect crop yields. The uneven distribution of rainfall has already raised concerns, with paddy sowing declining by 3%.
The Indian Ocean is currently under neutral Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions, which are not expected to enhance monsoon activity.
Regional temperature records
South peninsular India experienced its second-warmest August since 1901, while east and northeast India recorded their third-warmest August, and northwest India its fifth-warmest August in 126 years.
Outlook for 2026 monsoon
The IMD has forecast below-normal monsoon rainfall for India in 2026, with precipitation likely at 90% of the long-period average during the June-September season. Forecasts suggest a strong El Niño could emerge by late 2026 or early 2027, possibly weakening before India's next monsoon season. Historically, strong El Niño events have peaked around the end of the year and faded before the Indian monsoon. Early subsurface cooling signals in the western Pacific may indicate such a transition for next year.
However, reports cited experts cautioning that stronger El Niño events do not automatically lead to weaker Indian monsoons.