A Growing Threat
From Spain and France to Portugal, Greece and Italy, the list of European countries affected by particularly severe wildfires this summer is long, and it even includes colder states such as the UK, Ireland and Norway. Extreme heat and prolonged drought have heightened the risk, destroying more than 6,000 square kilometers of forest and forcing hundreds of thousands to leave their homes. By early August, the damage carried an estimated price tag of €15 billion ($17.5 billion), as reported by Deutsche Welle.
Now, a study published by the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) warns that the coming decades are likely to see the wildfire risk in Europe worsen. The researchers found that even with significantly stronger climate action, 39% more land could be burning annually by the end of the century than it is today. In the worst-case scenario, which would see global heating reach 3.6C above preindustrial levels, the burnt area would almost triple, according to The Guardian.
The Study's Findings
The study, published in the scientific journal Global Change Biology, compared projected annual burnt areas for 2070-2100 with modelled results for 2000-2030, and found that the increase in fire weather was the biggest driver of change. PIK researcher Maik Billing, the lead author, said: "If we continue to produce more emissions and global temperatures rise by around 3.6 degrees Celsius, wildfires will become much more frequent, especially in the Mediterranean region and across large parts of western and central Europe, including areas that have experienced few fires so far."
The study considered two scenarios: an optimistic one capping global heating at 1.8C, and a pessimistic one of 3.6C of heating leading to consistent worsening of fire weather across "virtually all of Europe." The Guardian notes that scientists expect current policies to result in about 2.6C of global heating by the end of the century.
Even in the best-case scenario for stopping the planet from heating, the study projects a 39% increase in burned area unless action is taken to manage fires better. This finding underscores the urgency of adapting fire management strategies regardless of climate mitigation outcomes.
The Limits of Fire Management
The study also examined the potential of improved fire management to offset these increases. The Guardian reports that improvements in fire management could moderate the increases by more than 70%, but not eradicate them entirely. Using a second model, the researchers found that continued improvements in fighting fires could reduce burnt area by 92% in the cooler scenario compared with fixing firefighting efforts at today's levels.
However, as Billing emphasized, "Fire management cannot replace climate mitigation." Kirsten Thonicke of PIK, a co-author, added: "Climate change could create conditions so extreme that we reach the limits of what is still feasible in preventing and fighting fires once they grow beyond a certain size."
Deutsche Welle also highlights that if greenhouse gas emissions were to fall rapidly, effective fire management could reduce future burned areas by as much as 90%. This suggests that a dual approach—aggressive emissions reductions combined with strategic fire management—is essential.
A Summer of Devastation
This summer's fire season has already proven severe. According to the study, by early August, twice as much land had burned in Europe during this summer's heatwave season compared to recent years. The Guardian reports that across the EU, this fire season is set to become the third-worst on record, behind 2025 and 2022, according to data published by the European Forest Fire Information Service. More than 600,000 hectares have burned so far, with records broken for this time of year in Belgium, France and Slovakia.
Large blazes have hit northern European countries such as the UK, Belgium and Germany after weeks in which France, Spain, Italy, Croatia and Greece battled monster infernos. Wildfires have been burning for days in western Germany and neighboring Belgium; in the High Fens, around 3,000 hectares of vegetation have been scorched, the largest wildfire Belgium has seen in decades, as reported by Deutsche Welle.
The Role of Wetlands and Peat Fires
The study also draws attention to the particular dangers of peat fires, which release large quantities of pollutants, including smoke particles and hazardous heavy metals such as mercury. Wetlands store around 30% of the carbon contained in soils worldwide despite covering only about 3% of the Earth's surface, Deutsche Welle notes. Historical examples illustrate the scale of the risk: a peat fire in Indonesia in 1997 affected roughly 100,000 square kilometres and ranks among the largest environmental disasters of the 20th century, potentially releasing between 13 and 40% of total global emissions for that year. Across Indonesia and neighboring countries, more than 200,000 people were treated in hospitals for acute health problems.
Investing in Prevention
The study's authors argue that Europe is not powerless. Thomas Hickler, a researcher at the Senckenberg Society for Nature Research, which contributed to the study, says: "We see fire-conducive conditions increasing, so we need to invest more." The European Union's contribution to forest and wildfire management programs in member states between 2021 and 2027 is around €2.1 billion, and World Bank estimates suggest every euro spent on prevention saves up to seven euros on firefighting and reconstruction, as reported by Deutsche Welle.
Víctor Resco de Dios, a forestry engineer at the University of Lleida, who was not involved in the study, told The Guardian that the fire season was often accompanied by an "unproductive blame game" and that the study was a reminder to move beyond scapegoating. "The problem of wildfires wouldn't be worsening if we were heading towards an ice age – instead of global warming. And it would have been largely mitigated if our landscapes were like they were a century ago, with a much smaller forest area."