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Ten years after an international tribunal in The Hague ruled that China's sweeping claims in the South China Sea had no legal basis, Philippine officials and analysts say Manila remains heavily outmatched at sea but has begun turning its landmark legal victory into a more credible form of deterrence.

The case was brought by the Philippines in 2013 under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (Unclos), challenging Beijing's nine-dash line and other claims. On July 12, 2016, the tribunal ruled that the nine-dash line had no legal basis and that China had violated Manila's sovereign rights in its exclusive economic zone, though it did not decide which country owned the disputed reefs and features.

China rejected the proceedings and the ruling, saying the tribunal had no jurisdiction and insisting it had sovereignty over the disputed features. Since then, Beijing has built and militarised artificial islands on reefs also claimed by the Philippines, a development critics cite as proof that the award did little to restrain Beijing.

Coverage Comparison

Reporting on the anniversary captures two sharply divergent narratives. One account, from the South China Morning Post, focuses on Manila's enduring legal victory and its slow conversion into practical leverage. The same outlet also details Beijing's latest pushback: a report by a think tank under China's Ministry of Natural Resources, released just days before the anniversary, condemning the Philippines' actions as "unlawful" expansions that pose a "grave threat" to the post-war global order.

While the first narrative emphasises the award's moral and legal weight, the second presents China's campaign to reinforce its position, dismissing Manila's claims as lacking historical and legal foundation. The two stories, published by the same news organisation, illustrate the entrenched positions that continue to define the dispute a decade after the ruling.

The Philippine side is quoted describing the past decade as a period of strengthening the country's ability to raise the cost of what it calls Beijing's "creeping invasion" in the West Philippine Sea—Manila's term for the waters it claims in the South China Sea. Chinese sources, meanwhile, are cited insisting that Manila's claims are "devoid of historical and legal foundation."

Key Claims

  • The Philippines initiated arbitration proceedings against China in 2013 under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea, challenging Beijing's nine-dash line and other claims.
  • A tribunal in The Hague ruled on July 12, 2016, that China's sweeping South China Sea claims had no legal basis and that China had violated Manila's sovereign rights in its exclusive economic zone, without determining ownership of the disputed features.
  • China rejected the proceedings and the ruling, asserting that the tribunal had no jurisdiction and affirming its sovereignty over the disputed features.
  • Over the past decade, the Philippines has worked to strengthen its ability to raise the cost of China's "creeping invasion" in the West Philippine Sea, according to speakers at a Manila forum.
  • In a report released days before the anniversary, the China Institute for Marine Affairs (CIMA), a think tank under the Ministry of Natural Resources, condemned the Philippines' territorial claims as "unlawful" expansions that pose a "grave threat" to the post-war global order.
  • The CIMA report argued that Manila's attempt to extend its territory to Scarborough Shoal and parts of the Spratly Islands was "devoid of historical and legal foundation," citing what it said was a comprehensive analysis of historical sources and international law.

Perspectives

Philippine government and analysts: The Philippines views the 2016 ruling as a legal triumph that, while not yet matched by naval strength, is being leveraged into a more credible deterrent. Officials and analysts at a Manila forum said the country has strengthened its ability to raise the cost of what they describe as Beijing's "creeping invasion" in the West Philippine Sea.

China's Ministry of Natural Resources think tank (CIMA): In a report released days before the anniversary, the think tank condemned the Philippines' actions as "unlawful" expansions and a "grave threat" to the post-war global order. It argued that Manila's territorial claims over Scarborough Shoal and parts of the Spratlys were "devoid of historical and legal foundation," and that a comprehensive analysis of historical sources and international law showed no basis for Philippine sovereignty over those features.