How climate change is reshaping Africa's malaria risk

A continent at the center of the fight

Africa continues to bear the heaviest burden of malaria, accounting for about 95% of global cases and deaths, according to the World Health Organization (WHO). In 2024, roughly 579,000 malaria-related deaths were recorded across the continent, with children under five comprising about three-quarters of those fatalities, as reported by AllAfrica.

More than half of all malaria deaths in the WHO African Region occur in just three countries: Nigeria (31.9%), the Democratic Republic of Congo (11.7%), and Niger (6.1%), according to Deutsche Welle. The same outlet notes that children under five account for about 76% of malaria deaths in the region.

While the historical focus of eradication efforts has been on West and Central Africa, where transmission is most intense, recent scientific findings point to a shifting disease landscape driven by climate change.

The vaccine effect

Five years after the first malaria vaccine was rolled out, measurable results are emerging. The WHO first recommended the RTS,S vaccine against Plasmodium falciparum—the parasite responsible for the deadliest form of malaria—in October 2021, as reported by AllAfrica. Since then, the vaccine has been incorporated into childhood vaccination programs in 25 African countries, targeting more than 10 million children each year, according to the same outlet.

According to the World Malaria Report 2025, more than 170 million cases and around 1 million deaths were prevented worldwide in 2024 thanks to wider use of prevention tools, including vaccines, mainly in Africa, AllAfrica reports.

A study published in The Lancet in May 2026 assessed the vaccine's impact across 158 areas in Ghana, Kenya, and Malawi over 46 months. The researchers found that the introduction of RTS,S led to a significant reduction in mortality among young children—approximately one in eight deaths was prevented in the areas studied, as reported by AllAfrica.

Deutsche Welle adds a specific figure from the same study: the RTS,S/AS01 vaccine reduced all-cause mortality among vaccine-eligible children by 13.2% in the pilot programs.

Another milestone came in April 2025 when the WHO pre-qualified the first anti-malarial treatment designed specifically for newborns and young infants—a step AllAfrica describes as significant given that around 30 million babies are born each year in malaria-endemic areas of Africa.

A changing geography of risk

Malaria transmission is highly temperature-dependent. It peaks at around 25 degrees Celsius and becomes much less likely below 16 or above 34 degrees Celsius, because the parasite must complete part of its life cycle inside the mosquito, according to Deutsche Welle, citing a study by nature.

That study found that rising temperatures are making parts of southern Africa and high-elevation areas of East Africa increasingly suitable for malaria transmission, while parts of West Africa are becoming too hot for optimal transmission, the outlet reports.

This shift could redraw the malaria map across the continent, with implications for where resources and interventions are most needed.

New threats: An invasive mosquito and funding cuts

Complicating the picture is the spread of Anopheles stephensi, a mosquito species native to South Asia that was first detected in Djibouti in 2012, according to AllAfrica. The species has since been reported in several East African countries and, more recently, in West Africa, including Nigeria and Ghana. It is well adapted to urban environments, breeds in containers and reservoirs near homes, and can survive the high temperatures of the dry season.

A model cited in scientific studies estimates that the combination of Anopheles stephensi spread and urbanisation could expose an additional 120 million Africans to malaria, AllAfrica reports—though this remains a projection rather than a confirmed outcome.

Funding is another concern. The WHO warned in April 2025 that funding cuts were jeopardising malaria control efforts, with more than half of malaria-endemic countries reporting moderate or severe disruptions to their malaria services, according to Deutsche Welle.

Expert views on climate's role

Experts quoted by Deutsche Welle offer contrasting emphases on how much climate change matters relative to other factors.

Olugbenga Mokuolu, Professor of Paediatrics at the University of Ilorin and advisor to the Nigerian Minister of Health, argued that climate is not the primary driver of malaria. "Funding, drug and insecticide resistance, and health system strength matter more," he said. He also described a potential divergence: West and Central Africa may receive a "small unplanned assist" from climate change, while East and southern Africa face a growing new threat.

Olumide Idowu, founder of the International Climate Change Development Initiative, took a broader view, stating that climate change is "fundamentally changing the geography of disease on the continent." He warned that without a significant increase in investment, reinforcement of local institutional capacity, and embedding health as a core pillar of climate resilience, many African countries risk being unprepared for the changing epidemiological landscape.

Progress amid persistent challenges

Despite the threats, there are signs of progress. Africa now has four countries certified as malaria-free by the WHO: Algeria, Mauritius, Cabo Verde, and Egypt, according to AllAfrica. The continent remains one of the lowest contributors to greenhouse gas emissions but one of the most vulnerable to climate change, Deutsche Welle notes.

As policymakers and health officials weigh next steps, the interplay between vaccine gains, climate-driven shifts, invasive species, and funding constraints will shape whether the continent can sustain its hard-won gains or see them eroded.