Introduction
Florida's primaries last week delivered a jolt to the state's political landscape, particularly for Democrats, who now head into the general election with an unlikely pair of nominees at the top of the ticket: Angie Nixon, a progressive state representative and Democratic Socialists of America member, for the U.S. Senate, and David Jolly, a former Republican congressman, for governor. The results have sparked both hope and anxiety within the party, as reported by the Santa Rosa Press Democrat.
Nixon's Upset Victory
Nixon's victory over Alex Vindman, a former National Security Council official and prominent Trump critic, came as a surprise to many. Vindman, who moved to Florida in 2023 and had few relationships in the state, was considered the establishment pick and enjoyed a significant fundraising advantage. According to the New York Post, Nixon overcame a 16-to-1 fundraising disadvantage. The Santa Rosa Press Democrat reports that Nixon defeated Vindman by 12 percentage points, winning majority-Black precincts by large margins while performing slightly worse in college-educated areas. Vindman lost in Broward County but won in Palm Beach County.
Nixon's campaign did not center on Israel, but she supported a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip and called out Palestinian deaths, a stance that drew criticism from some in the Jewish community. Richard Stark, a former state representative, told the Santa Rosa Press Democrat, "Her outreach to the Jewish community has not been good."
Vindman's supporters and campaign were stunned by the loss. His campaign had paid two pollsters but never released internal polls. In a conciliatory move, Vindman gave $400,000 to the Florida Democratic Party and urged his supporters to contribute to Nixon's campaign.
Reactions and Momentum
Nixon's win has generated notable enthusiasm. Her campaign raised $1 million in the first 48 hours after the primary, and Senator Bernie Sanders endorsed her on Thursday. Sanders appeared with Nixon on a call with Representative Maxwell Alejandro Frost that drew 1,200 people. Nixon's campaign said 40,000 people signed up to volunteer.
However, the response from state party leadership has been more measured. Nikki Fried, the Florida Democratic Party chair, did not call Nixon until Friday, three days after the primary. A unity rally planned for Saturday was scrapped after Nixon won. Fried told the Santa Rosa Press Democrat, "The voters are looking for fighters. They want to know that someone hears them."
Some Democrats see echoes of past excitement in Nixon's candidacy. The Santa Rosa Press Democrat notes comparisons to Andrew Gillum and Barack Obama, African American candidates who generated enthusiasm in the state. Scott Arceneaux, a Democratic strategist, described seeing Nixon at the party's annual fundraiser using a bullhorn to rally people. Dwight Bullard, a former state senator, said he was asked to get Nixon to stop using a bullhorn on the state House floor, but he refused.
The General Election Challenge
Despite the buzz, Florida remains a challenging environment for Democrats. Registered Republicans outnumber Democrats by 1.5 million, and President Donald Trump won the state by 13 percentage points in 2024. The New York Post reports that Republicans have gained nearly 2 million registered voters over Democrats since Ron DeSantis became governor, noting that Florida famously decided the 2000 presidential election by 537 votes.
The Republican incumbent senator, Ashley Moody, has seized on Nixon's DSA affiliation. "If I told you last year that Florida would have a nominee to the United States Senate that was a self-declared socialist, would you believe me? Not a joke!" Moody said at a rally in Tampa, as quoted by the Santa Rosa Press Democrat. Moody has $8 million in the bank.
Nixon and Jolly, the gubernatorial nominee, are friendly despite their policy differences. Jolly, who rejected socialism in his election night interview, saying "I'm a capitalist," now faces the question of how to run alongside Nixon. "Can you both win on the same ballot?" he said, repeating what many have asked him.
Republican Primaries and Strains
The Republican primaries also revealed internal tensions, according to the New York Post. Representative Byron Donalds cruised to the gubernatorial nomination, while James Fishback finished a distant third. Fishback had been endorsed by Tucker Carlson and others in what the New York Post described as "Podcastistan."
In Florida's 6th Congressional District, Representative Randy Fine fended off a challenge from Dan Bilzerian, who sought to defeat Fine because he was Jewish and whose closing ad urged Floridians to "revisit" Hitler. Fine defeated Bilzerian by nearly 40 points. Cory Mills lost badly in Florida's 7th Congressional District, and Jared Moskowitz easily fended off a DSA-backed challenge in his House primary, boasting, "Florida is where DSA goes to die." Debbie Wasserman Schultz also easily won her House primary.
The New York Post also reported on a rumor that moderate, pro-Israel Democratic bundlers are raising money for Moody against Nixon, a dynamic similar to one playing out in Michigan with Abdul El-Sayed.
Perspectives
Democratic Party Establishment: The establishment wing, represented by figures like Nikki Fried and supporters of Alex Vindman, is concerned that Nixon's progressive positions and DSA affiliation could hurt the party's chances in a state already tilted toward Republicans. They worry about down-ballot impact and the ability to win over moderate voters.
Progressive Wing: Nixon's supporters and national progressives like Bernie Sanders see her victory as a sign of energizing the base, particularly Black voters and young people. They believe her candidacy can bring new excitement and turnout, even if it defies conventional political calculations.
Republicans: The GOP, including Senator Ashley Moody and Governor Ron DeSantis, view Nixon's nomination as an opportunity to paint all Democrats as socialists and out of touch, reinforcing the party's advantage in a state they have dominated in recent years.