Houthis threaten to block Bab el-Mandeb Strait, bring oil prices to $200 per barrel

Coverage Overview

Recent reports from Russian state news agency TASS detail escalating threats from Yemen's Houthi movement, also known as Ansar Allah, to close the strategic Bab el-Mandeb Strait — a critical maritime chokepoint linking the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden. Such a move, according to analysts and Houthi officials, could trigger a global energy crisis and push oil prices to $200 per barrel.

The warnings come amid heightened military conflict between the United States, Israel, and Iran, including a US naval blockade of Iranian ports and a series of tit-for-tat attacks. The reports rely heavily on statements from Houthi officials and think-tank analysts, with no independent verification of the ongoing military operations.

Key Claims

• Blockade Threat: Mohammed Mansour, deputy information minister in the Houthi government, told Italian media outlet InsideOver that his forces could block the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, cutting off shipping lanes to the Suez Canal. “We have unlimited missile supplies and no ship will travel between Asia and Europe without our permission,” he said, as quoted by TASS.

• Oil Price Warning: Mansour warned that if Europe continues its “hostility towards the Axis of Resistance,” the Houthis would ensure oil prices rise to $200 per barrel, which he said would “strangle the European economy.”

• Analyst Assessment: Ahmed Nagi, a senior analyst at the International Crisis Group, told the Associated Press that if the US imposes a blockade on Iranian ports and Iran “starts feeling the pain, the Houthis are very likely to escalate in the Bab el-Mandeb.” His comments were carried by TASS.

• US-Iran Ceasefire: On April 7, the United States announced a two-week ceasefire with Iran, according to TASS. The report does not specify the terms or duration beyond the announcement.

• US Naval Blockade: US Central Command (CENTCOM) said the US military would begin implementing a blockade of all maritime traffic entering and exiting Iranian ports on April 13.

• Diplomatic Talks: Iran and the United States held several rounds of talks in the Pakistani capital on April 11. The Iranian delegation was led by parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, while Vice President JD Vance headed the US delegation. Both sides said no agreement had been reached on a long-term solution.

• Military Escalation: According to TASS, the United States and Israel launched a military operation against Iran on February 28, with strikes on major Iranian cities. Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps retaliated against sites in Israel, and US military bases in Bahrain, Jordan, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE were also hit.

• Strait of Hormuz: Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz to ships associated with the US, Israel, and supporting countries. On March 25, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi announced passage would be allowed for vessels from friendly countries, including Russia, India, Iraq, China, and Pakistan.

• Missile Attacks: The Houthis have launched ballistic missiles at military facilities in southern Israel, vowing to continue attacks until aggression against Iran and its allies ends.

Perspectives

The Houthi leadership frames the blockade threat as a direct response to perceived Western and Israeli aggression against Iran and its allies. Mansour’s statements to InsideOver characterize Europe's stance as hostile and warn of economic consequences, suggesting a strategy of leveraging maritime chokepoints for political ends.

Analysts like Ahmed Nagi view the Houthi threat as conditional and reactive, tied to Iran's ability to withstand US pressure. His assessment implies that a blockade is not inevitable but likely if Iran faces significant pain from the US naval blockade.

The US and Israeli governments have not publicly commented on the Houthi threat. The reported ceasefire and ongoing talks indicate a desire to de-escalate, yet the blockade implementation suggests continued military pressure.

Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz — a more significant oil transit route than Bab el-Mandeb — shows Tehran's willingness to use maritime leverage, though it has allowed passage for friendly nations.

Fact-Check and Corrections

All reported facts come from TASS, which has not provided independent verification. The claims about the US-Israel operation against Iran, the Houthi missile attacks, and the Strait of Hormuz closure have not been confirmed by other outlets covered here. The ceasefire and blockade dates appear inconsistent with the timeline of talks; for instance, if the ceasefire began April 7 and talks were held April 11, the blockade announcement on April 13 may indicate a breakdown.

Conclusion

The Houthi threat to close Bab el-Mandeb is a serious escalation concern, but it remains conditional on Iran's situation. The world's oil markets could see significant volatility if such a closure were to occur. As of now, the situation is fluid, and further reporting is needed to verify the claims and monitor the actions of all parties involved.