Houthis escalate threats against Saudi Arabia, raising risks to Red Sea shipping - analysis

Lead

The Houthi movement in Yemen has escalated its campaign against Saudi Arabia by declaring a maritime blockade on Saudi shipping in the Red Sea, raising concerns about disruptions to global energy supplies and a new front in the Middle East conflict. The announcement, made on July 20, was followed by claims of attacks on Saudi oil tankers and threats to close the strategic Bab al-Mandeb Strait, a key route for Europe's energy imports and Saudi Arabia's own trade.

The development marks a significant escalation in Yemen's long-running civil war, shifting the threat from land to sea. Saudi Arabia, which has sought in recent years to avoid a new war on its southern borders, now faces a more complex equation as the Houthis, backed by Iran, seek to pressure Riyadh through maritime attacks.

Coverage comparison

Reports from Al Jazeera, the Jerusalem Post, and TASS — English, each present the Houthi actions as a serious escalation, though with different emphases. Al Jazeera frames the situation as a "maritime siege" on all shipping to Saudi Arabia, highlighting the Houthis' declared blockade and their attacks on Saudi tankers. The Jerusalem Post's coverage, spanning two articles, focuses on the Houthis' claimed attacks on the Yanbu and Jizan areas, the downing of a Turkish-made Saudi Arabian drone, and the broader threat to Red Sea shipping. TASS — English, drawing on Russian newspaper reports, emphasizes the potential for a new regional front and notes that UN divisions are hindering an international response.

All three outlets attribute the escalation to US-Iran tensions and Houthi support for Hamas, though the causal chain is presented with varying degrees of directness. Al Jazeera explicitly links the Houthi blockade to the broader US-Iran war, while the Jerusalem Post notes that a reduction in US-Iran tensions could lead to a reduction in Yemen tensions.

Key claims

The Houthis have announced a maritime blockade targeting Saudi Arabia, a claim carried by multiple sources. According to Al Jazeera, the group declared a "maritime siege" on all shipping to Saudi Arabia, and the Jerusalem Post reports that the Houthis have threatened to blockade Saudi shipping in the Red Sea. The Houthis have justified the move as a response to what they describe as Riyadh's "unjust blockade of Yemen," an accusation Saudi Arabia has rejected, as reported by TASS — English.

The Houthis have claimed attacks on Saudi tankers in the Red Sea. Al Jazeera reports that the group has attacked a number of Saudi tankers, and the Jerusalem Post's second article details a claimed "qualitative military operation" targeting two Saudi oil tankers, the 'ENCELIA' and 'LAYLA,' using ballistic and cruise missiles and drones, with the Houthis claiming "accurate hits" and fires onboard.

In addition, the Houthis have claimed attacks on the Yanbu and Jizan areas in Saudi Arabia, key port facilities, according to the Jerusalem Post. The group has also claimed to have forced ten ships trying to transit the Bab al-Mandeb Strait to turn around.

Regarding military capabilities, the Jerusalem Post reports that the Houthis have downed a Turkish-made Saudi Arabian drone over Yemen, adding to a pattern of downing drones, including American Reapers. TASS — English, citing Russian expert Nikolay Sukhov, notes that the Houthis do not possess naval forces capable of maintaining a continuous cordon around Saudi ports, and that their "blockade" will likely be enforced through threats to shipowners rather than a full-scale naval blockade.

The Saudi-led Arab Coalition has threatened to use force against the Houthis if they attack civilian vessels in the Red Sea. According to TASS — English, coalition spokesman Saudi Major General Turki Al-Maliki issued this warning on X in response to the Houthi blockade announcement.

Al Jazeera reports that Yemen's internationally recognised government has restructured its military with a single decision-making center, a detail that adds context to the conflict but is not directly connected to the current escalation.

The Jerusalem Post notes that a UN-brokered truce in 2022 had previously reduced fighting between the Houthis and the Saudi-backed government, providing background to the current escalation.

There are also broader implications for energy trade. The Jerusalem Post reports that Saudi Arabia has invested in moving energy exports through the Red Sea due to the Strait of Hormuz being closed, and is considering expanding its East-West pipeline to the Red Sea coast. If the Houthis block this second waterway, energy trade could be at risk.

Perspectives

Houthi perspective: The Houthis, also known as Ansar Allah, frame their blockade as a response to Saudi Arabia's "unjust blockade of Yemen" and to Saudi actions against flights to Sanaa airport. They have warned that any Saudi response will be met with major attacks on Saudi Arabia.

Saudi-led coalition perspective: Saudi Arabia has rejected the Houthi accusation and, through coalition spokesman Major General Turki Al-Maliki, has threatened to use force if the Houthis attack civilian vessels in the Red Sea, signaling a willingness to defend shipping lanes.

Expert perspective: Russian Middle East expert Nikolay Sukhov argues that the Houthi move should be interpreted not as a full-scale blockade but as a campaign of coercive pressure, given the Houthis' limited naval capabilities, suggesting the practical impact may be less than the rhetoric implies.