Lead

Australia’s housing market has entered a downturn, with national property prices falling for consecutive months as higher interest rates and policy changes weigh on buyer demand. Data from property firms Domain and Cotality show the decline is no longer confined to Sydney and Melbourne, with previously resilient markets such as Brisbane, Adelaide and Perth now recording falls.

Coverage comparison

Reports from ABC Australia and The Guardian — World describe a market that has shifted decisively from the boom of recent years. Domain figures cited by ABC Australia show national capital city house prices fell 1.4 per cent in the June quarter, with unit prices down 1.2 per cent. Cotality data, also reported by ABC Australia, put the July decline at 0.7 per cent nationally — the largest single monthly fall since December 2022.

The Guardian — World, citing Cotality, reported that house prices have fallen in Brisbane, Adelaide and Perth since May, with Brisbane’s median price dropping about $8,000 to $1.1 million, and Adelaide and Perth each falling about $4,000 below their May records. The national median home price now stands at $928,000, about $19,000 below its March peak, according to that report.

While both outlets agree on the direction of the market, their emphasis differs. ABC Australia’s coverage focuses on the immediate data and expert commentary, while The Guardian — World places the current downturn in historical context, noting that there have been seven property market downturns over the past four decades, often triggered by interest rate hikes or policy changes.

Key claims

  • National capital city house prices fell 1.4 per cent in the June quarter, while unit prices dropped 1.2 per cent, according to Domain data reported by ABC Australia. This marked the first quarterly fall in more than three years.
  • National property prices fell 0.7 per cent in July, the largest monthly decline since December 2022, based on Cotality data reported by ABC Australia.
  • The downturn has broadened beyond Sydney and Melbourne: Brisbane prices fell 0.6 per cent and Adelaide 0.2 per cent in July, with Perth managing only a 0.1 per cent increase, according to Cotality data reported by ABC Australia.
  • Sydney house prices recorded the largest quarterly drop of 3.3 per cent, with about $60,000 shaved off the median house price in three months, as reported by ABC Australia.
  • The national median home price is now $928,000, about $19,000 below its March peak, according to The Guardian — World.
  • Regional Australia’s home values fell overall in June for the first time since January 2023, and fell or stayed flat in every state in July, as reported by The Guardian — World.
  • The downturn is attributed to higher interest rates, affordability constraints and waning buyer confidence, according to Domain’s chief of research and economics, Nicola Powell, quoted by ABC Australia. The Guardian — World also cites interest rate hikes and changes to property investor taxes as contributing factors.
  • Reserve Bank governor Michele Bullock said she was surprised by the slump in house prices and housing demand since May, as reported by The Guardian — World.

Perspectives

Property experts and economists

Domain’s Nicola Powell described the decline as a “decisive shift in market conditions” and noted that the downturn was broadening across capital cities, with growth slowing even where prices remained at record highs. She told ABC Australia that investors had become nervous and were “shying away from the housing market,” and that first home buyers in Sydney were less likely to be affected initially, as historically affordable areas were still rising in price.

Real estate agents

Gary Attard, director of Andrew Partners Real Estate in Sydney’s Fairfield, told ABC Australia that uncertainty was changing buyer behaviour, with some “sitting on their hands.” In Melbourne, agent Shahid Khan observed hesitancy in the marketplace due to borrowing capacity constraints, but said first home buyers were still bidding strongly.

Reserve Bank of Australia

Governor Michele Bullock, speaking at an Anika Foundation lunch, said she was surprised by the extent of the housing slump and falling demand since May, according to The Guardian — World. She noted that interest rates were only “a bit” restrictive, suggesting other factors, such as policy changes, may be at play.