Crossings Inch Up From Weekend Low
Ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz edged higher on Monday after a sharp weekend slowdown, though the number of crossings remained well below recent averages, according to preliminary shipping data from Kpler.
Six commodity ships transited the strait on Monday — three exiting and three entering the Gulf — compared with a 10-day average of 11 vessels, the data showed. That marked an increase from Saturday, when three ships passed through, and Sunday, when just two transits were recorded. The figures are preliminary, and analysts noted that some vessels may pass through the waterway with their transponders switched off, meaning they are not included in the tally.
No very large crude carriers or tankers carrying liquefied natural gas were among Monday's crossings, underscoring the continued fragility of traffic through the critical chokepoint.
Types of Vessels Moving Through
The Kpler data offered a detailed breakdown of Monday's traffic. The very large gas carrier (VLGC) Xavia entered the strait via the Iranian route under ballast, meaning it was empty of cargo. VLGCs are typically used to transport liquefied petroleum gases such as propane and butane.
A medium-range fuel tanker and an intermediate-range tanker also entered the Gulf, while a medium-sized LPG carrier, a Panamax bulk carrier, and a Panamax-sized fuel tanker exited. The mix of vessels suggests continued but limited movement of refined products and dry bulk goods, even as larger crude carriers remain absent.
Weekend Slowdown and Attacks
The low weekend numbers follow a period of heightened attacks on commercial shipping. Traffic slowed after strikes on UAE vessels, with five commodity ships transiting on Saturday and none registered for Sunday, versus 31 in the prior weekend, according to shiptracking data. The sharp drop-off reflects the impact of the attacks, which have heightened caution among shippers and insurers.
Over the past week, five commercial vessels were attacked in the strait, according to the UKMTO Operations Centre. One attack occurred Tuesday, when a cargo ship reported being struck by an unknown projectile off Oman, killing one seafarer. INTERCARGO identified the deceased mariner as a crew member on the Liberia-flagged bulk carrier Minoan Dignity. No government or group claimed responsibility for the attack, which was the first incident with a confirmed death since July.
According to the International Maritime Organization, at least 18 seafarers have been killed in attacks on commercial vessels in the region since late February. Iranian forces have claimed or been blamed for dozens of attacks, while US forces have acknowledged responsibility for about half a dozen, including a June 10 strike on a Palau-flagged tanker that killed three Indian seafarers.
MoU Expiry and Oil Flow Context
The recent traffic data comes as the Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) between the United States and Iran expired Monday without a peace deal, amid stalled negotiations. The agreement, announced June 17 and facilitated primarily by Pakistan, had aimed to de-escalate tensions and allow for increased oil flows.
During the 60-day MoU window, some 374 million barrels of oil exited the Gulf, equaling about 6.1 million barrels per day, according to Kpler data published Wednesday. That represented a near-tripling compared with the period from April until the MoU was signed, when an average of 2.3 million barrels per day were exported. However, the MoU volumes only reached about 40 percent of the roughly 15 million barrels that transited the strait daily in 2025, prior to the war.
More than half of the shipments occurred in the first three weeks of the agreement, and "by the end the flow was thinner, darker and re-accumulating behind the chokepoint," said Emmanuel Belostrino, head of Global Crude and Geopolitical Market Data at Kpler.
Market Reaction
Despite the recent slowdown, Brent crude futures were up about 0.3 percent at $91.93 per barrel as of 06:00 GMT on Thursday. Tim Waterer, chief market analyst at KCM Trade, said markets anticipate further declines in oil flows amid the impasse between Washington and Tehran, suggesting that traders are pricing in continued disruption rather than a swift resolution.
The strait, a conduit for about one-fifth of the global oil supply before the war, saw 73 transits between August 10 and 16, down from 91 the previous week, according to preliminary data from Lloyd's List Intelligence. The persistent attacks and the expiration of the MoU without a peace deal leave the region's shipping lanes in a precarious state, with the prospect of further declines in traffic as the stalemate continues.