Coverage Comparison
Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a vital artery for global oil supplies, has fallen sharply after Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) directed ships to use alternative routes to avoid potential mines. According to Reuters, ship-tracking data showed that only six ships—one oil products tanker and five dry bulk carriers—passed through the strait in the past 24 hours, compared with about 140 vessels normally. The IRGC's directive, reported by both TASS and the Tasnim news agency, requires all vessels intending to transit the strait to coordinate with the IRGC Navy and use two specified routes passing through waters near Larak Island until further notice. The move comes amid heightened military tensions in the Persian Gulf and follows a two-week ceasefire between the US and Iran, which has left shipping companies uncertain about safe passage.
Key Claims
- The IRGC Navy has ordered ships to use alternative routes in the Strait of Hormuz to avoid potential collisions with mines. According to a statement carried by TASS, the routes pass through waters near Larak Island, and ships must coordinate with the IRGC Navy. This claim is supported by both TASS and Reuters' reporting on the Tasnim agency.
- Traffic has dropped to well below 10% of normal volumes. Reuters, citing ship-tracking data, reported that only six ships passed through in the past 24 hours, compared with approximately 140 normally. This figure is reported by a single source (Reuters) and has not been independently verified by other outlets in the available coverage.
- The IRGC Navy command will prevent all military vessels from crossing the Strait of Hormuz. In a statement published by the Tasnim news agency and reported by TASS, the IRGC said "any attempt by a military vessel to cross the strait will be thwarted firmly and resolutely." This claim is sourced from the IRGC Navy command itself, as carried by TASS.
- The IRGC Navy denied reports about the passage of American ships through the strait. The denial, also from the IRGC Navy command, was reported by TASS but no other outlet in the current coverage mentions such reports.
- Iran may intend to charge a toll for ships transiting the strait, with some reports suggesting a figure of $2 million. This claim was reported by the Jerusalem Post but is not mentioned in the TASS or Reuters coverage, and remains unverified.
Perspectives
Shipping companies are navigating significant uncertainty. Jotaro Tamura, President and CEO of Mitsui O.S.K. Lines, one of Japan's largest shipping firms, told Reuters that "it must be confirmed that the safety risks are sufficiently low" before resuming normal operations. The company has managed to bring three tankers out of the strait recently but is awaiting guidance from the Japanese government on how to proceed under the two-week ceasefire.
British maritime security firm Ambrey has warned of "a realistic possibility of continued risk to unauthorized Strait of Hormuz transits as well as to Israel- and US-affiliated shipping attempting to transit," adding that "even shipping with apparent approval has been turned back in recent weeks mid-transit."
From Tehran's perspective, the IRGC frames its directive as a safety measure. According to the IRGC statement reported by TASS, the alternative routes aim "to ensure maritime safety and prevent potential collisions with sea mines" in light of "military tensions in the Persian Gulf and Strait of Hormuz." The IRGC also asserts its commitment to preventing any military vessel from crossing, a position that underscores the heightened military posture in the region.
Context
The current disruption follows a period of escalating US-Iran tensions, with the two-week ceasefire offering only a partial reprieve. The dramatic reduction in shipping volumes through Hormuz—a chokepoint for about 20% of global oil consumption—has raised concerns about supply disruptions and potential economic fallout. The IRGC's insistence on routing through Iranian territorial waters near Larak Island is a strategic move that could enhance Iran's control over the strait, and the suggestion of a toll—reported by the Jerusalem Post but not confirmed elsewhere—adds another dimension to Tehran's possible intentions.
As the situation develops, shipping firms and governments are closely monitoring the IRGC's directives and the security environment. The coming days will reveal whether traffic levels recover or whether the strait remains at a near standstill, with global energy markets watching closely.