Hong Kong home prices fall in July, ending 13-month run of gains
Hong Kong's lived-in home prices fell in July, snapping a 13-month streak of increases, according to official data released on Thursday. The Rating and Valuation Department's index tracking second-hand homes slipped to 321.5 in July from 323 in June, reflecting a decline of 0.46 per cent. China Daily Asia, citing the same data, reported the price index for private domestic homes slid 0.5 percent in July from a month earlier, ending a 13-month run of gains.
The July decline was the first in 16 months, since April last year, according to the South China Morning Post. Prices were flat in May last year before climbing steadily for 13 months from June, the newspaper reported.
Despite the monthly dip, the index remains up 7.3 percent from the end of last year through July, as reported by both China Daily Asia and the South China Morning Post. The latter also noted that from a trough in March last year — when prices had lost more than 28 per cent from their September 2021 peak — the index had recovered 13.37 per cent by June.
Sales slump and buyer caution
July also saw a sharp drop in transaction activity. China Daily Asia reported that the city recorded a more than 40 percent slump in home sales volume and values in July from a month earlier, citing land registry data. The newspaper noted that Hong Kong had seen strong home sales in the first half of 2026, largely supported by Chinese mainland buyers, who accounted for about half of first-hand residential sales by value in the three months ended March, according to Bloomberg.
Real estate agency Centaline Property said in a report that the city's overall property sales are expected to fall further in August to the lowest in 18 months as buyers turn conservative, China Daily Asia reported.
Expert outlook: consolidation ahead
Eddie Kwok, executive director for valuation and advisory services at CBRE Hong Kong, told the South China Morning Post that with residential property prices having increased by 7.3 per cent year to date, further upside is expected to be limited in the short term. He said the residential market is likely to enter a consolidation phase in the coming months.
Kwok also noted that corrections in the Hong Kong stock market may affect investor sentiment, while controls on outbound investment from mainland China could reduce capital flows into Hong Kong's property market. Taken together, these factors are expected to dampen investment demand, he said.